[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 40.7N 54.0W at 14/0900
UTC, or 415 nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving ENE at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen 200 nm from the center to the northeast. A
faster east-northeast or east motion is expected later today and
Tuesday. Weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become
a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate in a day or
so. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean Sea just
east of Honduras, near 15N83W. This broad area of low pressure
continues to support scattered heavy showers and strong tstms S of
20N W of 74W. The strong convection is concentrated to the east
of the low from 10N-20N between 74W-80W, from the coast of
Colombia north to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and SE Cuba.
This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwest across
northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which
should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of
days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over
the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a
little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America during the next few days, which
could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...Tropical wave over Africa...

A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa with
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so
while the disturbance moves west-northwest to northwestward near
or northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek. Regardless of
development, this system is forecast to bring locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
later today through Tuesday, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system. This system has a high chance for
tropical development through the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 15N
southward along 45W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well
depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection
extend to 250 nm on either side of the wave north of 09N.

A tropical wave analyzed with axis along 57W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is also depicted in model
guidance. Scattered showers are noted across the northern half of
the wave in the Atlantic waters and a few showers near the Lee
ward Islands to the U.S.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W in the coast of Africa to
05N31W to 09N43W. The ITCZ is from 07N50W to 07N57W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm north of the
ITCZ between 46W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the low eastward to 30N85W to
northeast Texas near 29N94W. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the boundary. To the south in the Bay of Campeche, a
surface trough is seen along the Yucatan Peninsula coast. No
significant convection is seen near the trough axis. In the Bay of
Campeche, scattered showers are noted west of 92W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across most of the
basin.

The stationary front will lift to the north of the area as a warm
front today. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure centered
east of northern Florida will maintain little change to winds and
seas through Tue night. The next cold front will push into the
northern Gulf waters on Wed, reach from near Ceder Key, Florida to
near 26N90W and stationary to the lower Texas coast late Wed. The
cold front will become stationary on Thu from near Fort Myers to
near 26N90W and to near northeastern Mexico. A broad area of low
pressure, that is currently over the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
is expected to to move across Central America and into the Bay of
Campeche by Wed. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany
this area of low pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for the heavy rainfall
event currently occurring over Central America and the W Caribbean.

Fair weather prevails across the eastern half of the basin mainly
east of 75W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the basin.

Broad low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean will slowly
move west-northwestward across Central America through Tue night
and into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Tue night and Wed. Fresh
to strong east to southeast winds are likely mainly over the
northwest part of the Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and
Honduras tonight into Tue as a surface trough forms on the east
side of the low pressure in that general area. Showers and
thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean are expected to
persist through early Wed. A tropical wave will move across the
Tropical N Atlantic Tue through late Wed night, then across the
eastern Caribbean Sea Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to accompany this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Melissa and the tropical waves moving across the
basin.

A surface trough extends across the west-central Atlantic from
near 30N58W to 23N63W to 22N74W near the SE Bahamas. Scattered
showers are seen in the vicinity of the trough axis west of 66W.
Farther east, a second surface trough extends from 26N57W to
21N61W is generating scattered moderate convection from 20N-25N
between 66W-69W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends
from 32N12W to 23N30W to 28N47W. There is no deep convection
associated with this front at this time.


A weak pressure pattern will remain in place through Tue
night maintaining little change to present conditions. Moderate
to strong southwest winds will develop over northwest forecast
waters early on Wed in advance of the next cold front. This cold
front will reach the far northwest part of the area Wed evening,
then reach from near 31N75W to Cape Canaveral late Wed night, from
near 31N73W to Stuart, Florida early Thu and weaken as it reaches
from near 31N64W to 27N73W, and stationary from there to West
Palm Beach. The moderate to strong southwest ahead of the front
will lift north of the area late on Wed. Moderate to fresh
northwest to north winds are expected behind the front Wed night,
becoming gentle to moderate north to northeast winds by Fri.

$$
MMTorres
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