[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 132040
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 13 2019

After an earlier flare-up of convection, thunderstorm activity has
decreased significantly in both coverage and intensity during the
past 4 hours. Convection is now limited to a small area in the
northeastern quadrant, and the inner-core region is becoming
dominated by stable cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on 1400Z ASCAT wind data
showing 35-36 kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle and
subsequent erosion of the convective pattern.

Melissa continues to gradually accelerate east-northeastward and the
initial motion estimate is now 075/16 kt. An additional increase in
forward speed, in conjunction with a turn toward the east, is
expected by tonight and then continue through the remainder of the
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies near an average of the tightly
packed consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

The unfavorable combination of westerly vertical wind shear of more
than 30 kt and SSTs less than 24 deg C is expected to continue the
current weakening trend, with Melissa becoming a remnant low by
Monday morning.  The cyclone is forecast to merge or interact with
a larger extratropical low by Wednesday and dissipate. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 39.9N  58.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 40.5N  55.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/1800Z 41.4N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/0600Z 41.9N  43.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z 41.7N  37.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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