[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Melissa is centered near 38.1N 67.0W at
12/1500 UTC or 230 nm SE of Nantucket Massachusetts moving ENE
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate convection convection is from 37N-40N between 65W-67W.
On the forecast track, Melissa will continue to move away from
the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. Melissa is forecast
to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front over the NW Gulf extends from the eastern Florida
Panhandle to near Veracruz Mexico. Gale force northerly winds are
forecast for the SW Gulf of Mexico within the area bounded by
19N95W to 19N96W to 20N97W to 20N95W to 19N95W, on 13/0000 UTC.
Seas will be 9-11 ft. The gale is forecast to last six hours.
Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A 1008 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 11.5N81W.
The low is forecast to move WNW toward Central America early next
week, and some development is possible if the low moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala,
and Belize. Regardless of development, this system could bring
heavy rains to portions of Central America late this weekend
through early next week.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 17N35W to an
embedded 1012 mb low near 11N38W to 02N38W, moving W at 15 kt.
This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model
guidance. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave
axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 08N-
20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near
11N14W to 06N22W to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to
the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate to
isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-10N
between 08W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N
between 18W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the forecast Gale
Warning.

A cold front extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle near
31N87W to 27N92W to near Veracruz Mexico at 19N96W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere
isolated moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida.

The cold front will reach the Bay of Campeche later today, become
stationary, then dissipate by Mon. N gales are briefly expected
behind the front in the waters near Veracruz this afternoon.
Elsewhere, high pressure northeast of the Gulf will promote
quiescent conditions through Tue. On Wed, a new, but, weaker cold
front will push eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. No
tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days
over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for the heavy rainfall event
currently occurring over Central America and the SW Caribbean.

TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. The Pacific monsoon trough extends
from Colombia westward across the SW Caribbean Sea into northern
Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection covers the SW Caribbean mainly south of 16N
and west of 68W.

The SW Caribbean low near 11.5N81W will move west-northwestward
into Central America through early next week. Fresh to strong
tradewinds are likely in the western Caribbean and offshore waters
of Central America Mon and Tue from this system. There is a low
chance that this system could become a tropical cyclone in the NW
Caribbean by early next week. Elsewhere weak winds and low seas
prevail over the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Sub-Tropical Storm
Melissa and tropical waves moving across the basin.

A western Atlantic cold front extends from 31N61W to 26N66W. A
stationary front continues to 24N70W to the Bahamas near 24N78W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front N of
27N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front.
Two 1012 mb lows are N of the Caribbean near 24N56W and 22N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-23N between 58W-63W.
Another cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N27W to 31N34W to
beyond 32N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near
26N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 21N-30N between
46W-56W.

The western Atlantic front will gradually dissipate by Mon. High
pressure north of the front will promote quiescent conditions
through Tue. On Wed, moderate to strong SW winds will develop east
of Florida ahead of the next cold front. Subtropical Storm
Melissa well north of the area is generating large N swell over a
large portion of the western Atlantic. These high seas will
gradually diminish by Sun night. No new tropical cyclone activity
is expected for the next several days.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net