[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Melissa is centered near 38.5N 69.6W at
11/1500 UTC or 170 nm S of Nantucket Massachusetts moving SSW at
3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A strong band
north of the center is producing scattered moderate convection
from 39N-40N between 67W-71W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into
the NW Gulf this afternoon, then reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz Sat afternoon. Behind the front,
strong to gale force northerly winds are expected along the
Mexican coastal waters beginning early Sat morning. Winds will
diminish across the area Sun morning. Refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or
at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

Heavy rainfall event expected for Central America: A 1007 mb low
is centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N82W. As the low tracks
westward toward Central America by early next week it is likely
to be associated with a Central American gyre. Through the
weekend, heavy rainfall is likely across Colombia, Panama, Costa
Rica and eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Early next
week, the heavy rain will continue in those locations and spread
northwestward to the rest of Central America as well as southern
Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 19N30W to
03N30W, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is where
the wave axis intersects the ITCZ from 03N-13N between 27W-31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49W from 09N-
21N, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
over the northern portion of the wave from 18N- 23N between 47W-
53W. scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 86W from 03N-
21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded in an area of
deep layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 07N50W to the
coast of Venezuela near 10N61W. besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is S of
the monsoon trough from 02N-08N between 07W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 11/1500 UTC a cold front has reached the Texas coast near
Corpus Christi. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana N of 27N. 20-25 kt northerly
winds are N of this front. A temperature drop of 20 degree is also
noted. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over the SE
Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida.

The cold front will reach from the Mississippi delta to Veracruz by
Sat afternoon. The front will become stationary on Sun from the FL
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to minimal gale force
northerly winds can be expected behind the front along the
Tamaulipas Coast tonight, then over the waters near Veracruz Sat
afternoon. Winds will diminish across the entire area Sun night as
high pressure north of the area slides eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean
and northern South America. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection covers the Caribbean Sea south of 15N between 74W-
84W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the coasts of N
Venezuela and N Colombia.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 86W will move
into Central America this afternoon. Fresh to strong trades,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail east of
the wave across the south-central and western Caribbean. Long
period N to NE swell will slowly decay across the Atlc waters and
Caribbean passages through tonight. Broad low pres may develop
across the SW Caribbean this weekend, then persist into early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N62W to 25N70W to
23N78W. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32N between
61W-65W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the
front. Two 1010 mb lows are N of the Caribbean near 22N63W and
22N57W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 20N-23N
between 57W-64W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 33N34W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered near 25N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-
28N between 43W-57W.

A weakening cold front extending from 29N65W to 26N70W to just SW
of Andros Island will push slowly SE for the next few days and
dissipate W of 70W by Sun. High pressure behind the front will
induce fresh NE winds NW of the front. Subtropical Storm Melissa
well north of the area will continue to generate large N swell
over a large portion of the western Atlantic through Sat. The
swell will then slowly subside Sat night and Sun.

$$
Formosa
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