[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091817
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
217 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles
east of Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Although some limited development is still possible today,
upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further
development by tonight, and the chance of this system becoming a
tropical or subtropical cyclone is decreasing. Please read the
High Seas Forecast listed under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 18W from 19N southward, moving W at 5-10
kt. The tropical wave model guidance and the TPW depicts the wave
well. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-19N between 17W-
20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 40W from
20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. TPW indicate an area of dry
air near the vicinity of the wave limiting convection south of
16N. However, scattered moderate convection is seen from 16N-23N
between 35W-41W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and
within the wave axis from 11N-17N, while scattered moderate to
strong convection prevails within 230 nm either side of the wave
axis.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 19N
southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 200 nm on the east side of the wave axis from 09N-14N
between 81W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through The Gambia near 14N16W to 10N30W
to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 10N41W to 09N60W. Aside to the
convection seen near the tropical waves, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along and within 200 nm north of
the ITCZ between 44W-54W and 57W-61W near the coast of Trinidad
and Tobago.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the coast of Florida near 27N82W
to 27N84W, then transitions to a stationary front to 26N87W and
to a weakening front to 25N90W. A weakening warm front extends
from the SE Texas coast and continues to 26N95W. A surface trough
extends from 24N87W to 26N82W to Lake Okeechobee Florida.
Relatively drier airmass dominates the weather pattern across the
NW to Central Gulf west of 90W. The combination of the trough and
the stationary front are enhancing scattered moderate convection
from 22N-28N between the coast of FL near 82W-88W. To the south,
scattered showers and tstorms prevail along a surface trough near
18N93W to 22N97W in the Bay of Campeche. The convection associated
with both troughs over the southern Gulf of Mexico is being
enhanced by weak upper-level divergence.

A weakening trough extends from near Ft Meyers SW to 23N90W will
meander today and gradually tonight. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds can be expected to the NW of the boundary E of 90W through
Thu as high pres resides over the SE U.S. A cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Thu evening, then reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon where it will
become stationary. Behind this front, strong to near gale force
northerly winds can be expected, especially Sat and Sat night.
Near gale force winds may persist offshore Veracruz into Sun,
before all areas see diminishing winds Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. See section above for
details.

A surface trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico is enhancing scattered
showers and isolated tstorms near the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
moderate convection is seen over the western Gulf of Honduras near
the east coast of Belize. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to
locally strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, to
the east of 75W. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen north
of Venezuela from 11N-13N between 67W-70W, and in the SW Caribbean
between the tropical waves impacting the coastal areas of Panama
and Costa Rica, from 09N-12N between 76W-82W.

A weakening trough extends from near Ft Meyers SW to 23N90W will
meander today and gradually tonight. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds can be expected to the NW of the boundary E of 90W through
Thu as high pres resides over the SE U.S. A cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Thu evening, then reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon where it will
become stationary. Behind this front, strong to near gale force
northerly winds can be expected, especially Sat and Sat night.
Near gale force winds may persist offshore Veracruz into Sun,
before all areas see diminishing winds Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...


A cold front extends from 30N77W to Florida near 28N80W and
continues west across the Peninsula to the Central Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers are along and south of the front. The
latest ASCAT pass shows strong N to NE winds to the north of the
front. A surface trough extends from a 1011 low pressure near
32N72W to 27N80W. Scattered showers are seen 100 nm SE of the
trough to the SE of the front. An occluded 1011 mb low is in the
central Atlantic Ocean near 31N50W. An occluded front curves away
from the low center, reaching a triple point near 32N42W. A
stationary front extends from 32N42W to 23N46W. Cold front
continues to 24N61W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along
the boundaries and 180 nm southeast quad from the low pressure.

A weak cold front extends from 31N75W southwestward to the Cape
Canaveral area and will move slowly SE this afternoon then
accelerate Thu and Fri, reaching from 30N65W to 27N69W to 27N80W
by Fri evening. High pres will build from the SE U.S. behind the
front and act to freshen winds NW of the boundary. Low pres will
deepen off of the middle Atlc coast this afternoon through Fri and
generate large N to NW swell to move into the local western Atlc
waters on Fri and remaining Atlc waters Sat.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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