[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A small 1010 mb low is located about 235 nm south-southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, near 32N74W. While the latest ASCAT
pass shows winds of 25-33 kt extending out to 75 nm in the
southern semicircle, the associated thunderstorm activity is
limited. Although upper-level winds are not particularly favorable
for additional development, this system still has a medium chance
of becoming a tropical depression or storm today. By tonight, the
system is forecast to merge with a non-tropical low that is
currently near 37N70W off the east coast of the United States.

An occluded 1010 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean,
near 32N48W, or about 870 nm east of Bermuda. An occluded front
curves away from the low center, reaching the triple point near
33N41W. A cold front extends from 33N41W to 31N41W. The front
continues as stationary to 24N47W to 23N51W to 25N58W. The latest
ASCAT pass shows a large area of 25-33 kt winds extending to
beyond 300 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Sea
heights range from 11-14 ft within 360 nm of the center in the NW
semicircle. Isolated moderate convection extends outward 420 nm in
the E semicircle. This system could still become a tropical or
subtropical storm while it moves slowly westward through today.
However, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
further development by tonight. Please read the High Seas Forecast
listed under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at
website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 17W from 20N southward, moving W at 5-10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
04N-20N between 10W-25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 07N-20N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-20N
between 32W-39W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 300
nm to the west of the wave axis from 14N-19N, while isolated
moderate convection prevails near and W of the wave to the south
of 14N. A large area of numerous moderate to strong convection
prevails inland over N Colombia from 06N-11N between 72W-78W.
Isolated showers are elsewhere from 05N-20N between 67W-77W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80/81W from 20N
southward, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from Panama to 14N.
Isolated showers are elsewhere near the wave axis north of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 11N27W to
09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N47W to 09N60W. Isolated
to scattered moderate convection is along and within 180 nm north
of the ITCZ between 46W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from north of
Tampa Bay to 26N90W to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.
Relatively dry air prevails north of the front. A surface trough
extends from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula to 25N85W to Ft. Myers
Florida. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-25N between
85.5W-91W, including over the Yucatan Channel. Cloudiness along
with scattered light showers are seen elsewhere over the SE Gulf
within 180 nm SE of the surface trough. Another surface trough is
over the western Bay of Campeche from 18N92W to 22N97W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 18N-21N
between 92.5W-96W. The convection associated with both troughs
over the southern Gulf of Mexico is being enhanced by weak upper-
level divergence.

The trough extending from near Ft Myers, Florida southwest to
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula will lift slowly northwestward
through tonight. The stationary front extending from the Florida
Big Bend to the mouth of the Rio Grande River will remain
stationary along 26N/27N through Thu. Moderate northeast winds
near and north of the front will persist through this morning
before diminishing to gentle to moderate. Another cold front will
move into the NW Gulf Fri night and reach from near the mouth of
the Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and become
stationary Sat night. The front will be followed by strong to
near gale force northerly winds Sat and Sat night, and by strong
northwest winds along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz early Sun,
diminishing to mainly moderate to fresh winds Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. See section above for
details.

A surface trough extends from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula to Ft.
Myers Florida. Scattered moderate convection is over the Yucatan
Channel and in the western Gulf of Honduras. Moisture from the
surface trough is inducing isolated showers and tstorms near and
over Cuba. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong
winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, to the east of 75W.

The tropical wave along 70W will move across the rest of the
central Caribbean Sea through tonight and across the western
Caribbean Thu through early Fri before moving inland over Central
America later on Fri. Fresh to strong trades along with scattered
showers and tstorms, some with strong gusty winds, will follow
behind the wave through today. Large north to northeast swell
over the central Atlantic will continue to impact the area waters
and move through the Caribbean passages through today, then
gradually subside Thursday and Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the two areas of low pressure that are being monitored for
possible tropical development.

A cold front at 09/0300 UTC extends from 32N77.5W to Daytona Beach
Florida and continues as a stationary front to north of Tampa Bay
to 25N90W. Isolated to scattered showers are along and south of
the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong N to NE winds to the
north of the front. The cold front will approach the northwestern
Bahamas today, then reach the central Bahamas Thu and Thu night
and become stationary from near 28N65W to the central Bahamas and
to northern Cuba late Fri through Sun night as high pressure
slides eastward just to the north of the area.

A surface trough extends from the 1010 mb low near 32N74W to
Stuart Florida to Ft. Myers. A second surface trough is analyzed
at 09/0300 UTC to extend from 31N73W to the Bahamas near 25N77W.
Upper-level ridging is centered over the Central Bahamas. Upper-
level divergence is helping to enhance scattered moderate
convection along and within 60 nm SE of the second trough.
Isolated to scattered light to moderate showers are elsewhere in
between the two troughs, over South Florida and in the Florida
Straits. The first trough will lift northeastward through tonight.

A stationary front extends from 31N41W to 24N47W to 23N51W to
25N58W, dissipating to 30N68W. Isolated showers are near the front
west of 50W. Scattered moderate showers are near the front east of
50W. Winds and seas will diminish north of the dissipating stationary
front between 65W-68W through today as the pressure gradient
there slackens.

$$
Hagen
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