[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front will move into the northern waters on Sat followed
by strong high pressure. The resultant tight pressure gradient
will generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the
waters N of 29N and E of 75W beginning late on Sat, and strong to
minimal gale force winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 71W Sun
and Sun night. These winds will diminish Mon. A gale is forecast
for the western Atlantic starting Sunday 06/0600 UTC. Refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Total precipitable water imagery depicts the
wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03N-05N between 17W-21W and along the coast of W Africa .230 nm
east of the wave, from 09N-13N between 15W-18W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N
between 42W-46W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 06N-20N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Recent ASCAT imagery depicts the wave very well.
Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N15W, to 07N29W to 05N40W. The ITCZ extends west of a
tropical wave from 06N45W to the coast of French Guiana near
04N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03N-09N between 22W-40W. Scattered showers are from 05N-08N
between 49W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low centered over NE Texas near 29N95W enhancing a few showers
near the Texas coast. Mid level divergence is enhancing an area of
scattered showers and tstorms in the Central Gulf. At the surface,
a 1011 mb low is centered N of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W.
10-15 kt winds are present north of the low near 22N-28N and west
of 83W. A surface trough extends from 24N87W to the low center to
N Guatemala near 17N89W. Scattered moderate convection is near
the trough from 23N-25N between 85W- 88W with scattered showers
and tstorms in the Yucatan Channel.

High pressure will remain centered north of the basin through
early next week. A cold front will enter the northern and western
Gulf Mon. It will reach the central and southwest Gulf Tue, then
weaken and become stationary Wed. High pressure following the
front will weaken as it slides eastward through Wed. A broad
trough of low pressure just north of the Yucatan Peninsula will
move W over the Bay of Campeche during the next few days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above.

Interaction with an upper ridge centered over the Yucatan Channel
and an upper level low over the Western Atlantic is producing an
area of diffluence from the Southern Bahamas and across Cuba. In
the latest low level water vapor imagery, plenty of moisture is
noticeable in the NW Caribbean which is enhancing a broad area of
scattered moderate strong convection from Hispaniola, Windward
Passage, across Cuba to the Cayman Islands to the Yucatan Channel.
Clusters of scattered moderate strong convection are over the NW
Caribbean from 18N-22N between 70W-85W. Further S, scattered
moderate strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 10N-13N
between 73W-75W and the coast of Panama and Costa Rica.

A tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean through
Sat night, then across the central Caribbean Sun and Mon, then
across the western Caribbean Mon night through Tue night. Moderate
to fresh trades will continue over the central and eastern
Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds over the S central
Caribbean could become strong by the middle of next week. N swell
generated by a cold front N of the area will cause seas to build E
of the Lesser Antilles Mon through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper low is centered over 27N73W with a surface trough
extending from 29N76W to 23N73W. Water vapor imagery shows
abundant dry air W of the low from 74W to the coast of FL
and most of the moisture content to the east. A 1014 mb low
is further east at 29N64W with a trough extending from 32N59W
to 23N69W. Scattered moderate strong convection is mainly south
of 24N to the coast of Hispaniola and Cuba between 68W-77W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are present from 23N-29N between
69W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-29N between
54W-61W north of the tropical wave along 61/62W. A 1022 mb high
is over the central Atlantic remains in control.

A cold front will move into the northern waters on at followed by
strong high pressure. The resultant tight pressure gradient will
generate strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the waters N
of 29N and E of 75W beginning late on Sat, and strong to minimal
gale force winds over the waters N of 28N and E of 71W Sun and Sun
night. These winds will diminish Mon. N swell generated by the
strong winds will propagate through the remaining waters NE and E
of the Bahamas through Mon evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. The front will stall
and weaken Sun night, then lift N as a warm front Mon.

$$
MMTorres
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