[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over W Africa along 15W from 05N-18N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Total precipitable water imagery depicts the wave.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 12W-16W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 03N-16N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N
between 38W-42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 04N-17N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Recent ASCAT imagery depicts the wave very
well. Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-18N between 52W-
57W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W to 08N20W to 07N29W. The ITCZ extends from
07N29W to 07N40W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from
07N43W to 09N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical
wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N
between 18W-30W. Similar convection is from 06N-12N between 45W-
49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near
33N75W. 10-15 kt easterly surface flow is over the N Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida. In the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf
near 24N96W. Isolated moderate convection is over the W Gulf W of
90W.

Weak high pressure will remain centered northeast of the region
through early next week. A weak cold front will approach the far
northern Gulf on Fri and become stationary through the weekend. A
stronger cold front may move over the northern and western Gulf
early next week. A broad area of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean will move westward across the Yucatan
Peninsula and to over the Bay of Campeche during the next few
days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this
feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 19.5N85W in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from 23N84W to the
low center to 17N86W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm of the trough axis. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the S coast of Cuba from 17N-22N
between 74W-83W. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon
trough is over the SW Caribbean. Widely scattered moderate
convection is S of 12N between 76W-84W. Elsewhere, isolated
moderate convection is advecting over the Leeward Islands and the
Windward Islands from the Atlantic, E of 63W.

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean will
move westward to across the northern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Fri and Fri night. A tropical wave will reach the
Lesser Antilles tonight, move across the eastern Caribbean Fri
through Sat evening and across the central Caribbean Sun through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1014 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 27N73W. A surface
trough extends from 31N71W to the low center to 26N73W. Another
1014 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 28N65W. A surface trough
extends from 30N62W to the low center to 25N68W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the trough axis. In the upper
levels, upper level diffluence is over the central Atlantic
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from
22N-29N between 49W-59W.

A trough northeast of the Bahamas will weaken through Fri. A
cold front will move into the northern waters on Sat, with strong
northeast to east winds and building seas expected north of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front. The front will stall and weaken Sun night, then lift
northward as a warm front early next week.

$$
Formosa
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