[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Light showers are along the wave but no
significant convection is noted at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 14N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
08N-13N between 55W-59W. Enhanced rainfall is likely for the
southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean tonight and Thursday.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, stretching
across northeast Honduras southward into northern Costa Rica and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean, and is moving W around 10-15 kt.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to
07N34W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07N35W to 08N46W
to 09N56W. The ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave near
09N57W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen moving off the coast of Africa near the
monsoon trough, from 07N-14N and E of 20W. Scattered showers are
along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 25W- 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid level and surface ridging continue across the Gulf of Mexico.
The eastern Gulf remains quiet with a few scattered showers
moving from Florida to adjacent waters. Scattered thunderstorms
are seen in the western Gulf from 20N-30N between 91W-96W. The
diurnally-driven Yucatan trough is analyzed in the Bay of
Campeche from 19N93W to 21N95W. Latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh ENE winds in the eastern Gulf with light to
gentle winds in the western Gulf.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern
U.S. and weak low pressure in the NW Caribbean will support fresh
NE to E winds over the east-central Gulf through Thursday night.
The low will pass near or over the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday
night, then move into the SW Gulf on Friday and open up into a
surface trough this weekend. NE winds may freshen over the NW Gulf
Monday and Monday night as a cold front drops southward into the
northern waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad cyclonic circulation continues across the western Caribbean
with a 1007 mb low centered near 19N84W and a surface trough
extending along the low from 17N88W to 22N81W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the Greater Antilles and the NW
Caribbean, from 15N-23N between 67W-85W. The eastern portion of
Puerto Rico through the Lesser Antilles remains fair as an upper
and mid-level ridge continues to prevent deep convection across
this area. However, some streamer showers are still noted along
these islands. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades in the eastern and NW Caribbean with light winds
elsewhere.

A broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean will slowly
move NW toward the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel through Thursday
night. Moderate trade winds in the east-central Caribbean will
increase to fresh tonight through Friday night, then remain
moderate to fresh Saturday through Monday. A tropical wave will
reach the Lesser Antilles by Thursday night, move over the
eastern Caribbean Friday through Saturday, then cross the central
Caribbean Sunday into Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A narrow ENE-WSW upper level trough is centered over the western
Atlantic. At the surface, a 1010 mb low is located near 26N70W
with a trough extending along the low from 21N71W to 30N69W.
Another trough is noted near this area from 24N68W to 28N63W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near these features from
21N-30N between 57W-67W. Two weaker troughs are noted in the
central Atlantic, from 16N56W to 21N60W with no significant
convection associated with it. The other trough extends from
20N55W to 27N46W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms seen from 21N-29N between 46W-56W.

A cold front enters the waters near 31N31W and extends westward to
29N38W and stalls from that point to 31N47W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen along this front N of 26N between
28W-44W. A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed near 26N36W.

Moderate NE winds will persist through Thursday between a broad
area of low pressure NE of the Bahamas and high pressure north of
the area. Wind speeds will diminish on Friday as the low moves NE
away from the region. A cold front will drop southward into the
northern waters on Saturday, with strong NE to E winds following
frontal passage and seas building to 8-12 ft. Strongest winds and
highest seas are expected north of 27N and east of 77W. The front
is expected to stall over the northern waters on Sunday, then
lift northward as a warm front early next week.

$$
AKR
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