[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 02/1500 UTC, Hurricane Lorenzo has become extratropical. The
center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo is near 44.4N 25.8W, or
about 380 nm NE of Flores Island, in the western Azores. Lorenzo
is moving to the NE at 37 kt. Minimum central pressure is 962 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 kt gusting to 85 kt. Please
see the final NHC forecast/advisory for Lorenzo via the WMO
header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please go
to the website www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Additional
information on this system can be found in the high seas forecasts
issued by the UK Met office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on
the web at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-
forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-seas-forecast

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Possible light rainshowers are from 03N-07N
between 27W-32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54/55W, from 14N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen from 07N-12N between 52W-60W. Enhanced
rainfall is likely for the southern Windward Islands and SE
Caribbean tonight and Thursday.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W along the east
coast of Central America from 08N-17N, moving W around 10 kt.
Isolated to scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of southern
Senegal near 12N16W to 09N18W to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from
06N26W to 05N29W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N34W to
09N45W to 10N52W. Scattered showers are along and within 180 nm N
of the ITCZ between 47W-52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over west Africa and offshore from 07N-13N, east of
17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. extends
a surface ridge over much of the Gulf of Mexico. The ridging
extends to the mid and upper levels as well. The only exception is
over the southern and SW Gulf, where broad upper-level troughing
is present. The atmosphere is slightly drier than average across
much of the Gulf, but there are a few areas where scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are present. One of these areas is
seen from 23N-29N between 89W-91W. The other is within 90 nm of
the coast of Mexico, south of 24N and west of 92W.

The gradient between high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and
weak low pressure in the NW Caribbean will support fresh NE to E
winds over the SE Gulf through Thu night. The low will cross the
Yucatan Peninsula Thu night and move across the central and NW
Gulf waters before dissipating on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 19N83W. A surface trough
extends from 22N80W to the low to 17N88W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 18N-23N between 77W-83W,
with the strongest convection north of the Cayman Islands and
south of central Cuba, enhanced by upper-level divergence. Any
development of this broad 1006 mb low is expected to be slow to
occur while it moves to the west-northwest near the Yucatan
Peninsula in a day or so, and over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Friday.

Upper-level ridging centered over Hispaniola extends from 14N-
25N between 64W-85W. Just east of the upper-ridge axis, upper-
level divergence is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 16N-20N between 68W-77W, especially south
of the Dominican Republic and also in the Windward Passage.
Farther south, scattered showers are near the NW coast of Colombia
south of 11N between 75W-78W.

Moderate trade winds in the east-central Caribbean will increase
to moderate to fresh tonight through Sat. A tropical wave will
reach the Lesser Antilles on Thu night, and move to the central
Caribbean late on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N70W to a 1011 mb low near 26N68W
to 20N70W. A narrow ENE-WSW oriented mid-upper level trough is
near that longitude from 26N-29N. Mid-upper level ridging lies to
the south of 25N extending to the Caribbean. Upper-level
diffluence is enhancing convection to the east of the surface
trough and low. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 20N-
30N between 57W-68W.

A surface trough extends from 27N46W to 19N51W. Scattered
moderate showers are seen within 180 nm of the northern half of
this trough. A pair of surface highs, 1019 and 1021 mb
respectively, are near 26N34W and 29N27W. A dissipating cold front
extends from 31N36W to 30N39W to 30N41W. A dissipating stationary
front continues to 31N47W. Scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms are seen in between the front and the surface
highs from 26N-30N between 31W-45W.

The gradient between a broad area of low pressure NE of the
Bahamas and high pressure north of the area will support moderate
to fresh trades N of 25N today. Large swell from distant post-
tropical cyclone Lorenzo will continue to affect the waters
through at least Thursday and will gradually subside on Friday
and Friday night. A cold front will drop southward into the
northern waters this weekend, with fresh to strong NE to E winds
expected behind the front, and seas building to 8-11 ft. Strongest
winds and seas associated with the front will dominate the north-
central and NE waters.

$$
Hagen
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