[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 021436
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Lorenzo has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical
cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The
center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud
shield, and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired
frontal features.  The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is
a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a
low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds.  The global
models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland.  A
faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when
the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday.

The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt,
and this general motion should continue into Thursday.  After that
time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then
southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow.  The global
model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is
in closest to the ECMWF model.

Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United
Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the
United Kingdom Met Office.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic.  Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 44.4N  25.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  03/0000Z 48.6N  20.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  03/1200Z 52.8N  14.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  04/0000Z 54.0N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1200Z 52.5N   3.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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