[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo, at 01/2100 UTC, is near 37.0N 35.5W, about 248
nm SW of the Flores Island in the western Azores. Lorenzo is
moving to the NE at 25 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 960 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 85
knots with gusts to 105 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is present in the NE quad out to 250 nm from the
center and 250 nm in the NW quad. Scattered moderate convection is
present in the SE quad out to 200 nm. Hurricane Lorenzo is
expected to move faster to the NE through Thursday, then slow down
and turn eastward by Thursday. The center of Lorenzo is expected
to pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday.
Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 knots. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
are in the vicinity of the wave axis from 03N-08N between 20W-28W
and from 14N-20N between 21W-27W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W, from 17N southward,
moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted near the wave from 09N-14N between 46W-51W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, from 16N
southward, moving W at 10 knots. This wave is approaching a 1007
mb low near 19N80W which is about 140 nm west of Jamaica. Numerous
strong convection is seen across the Greater Antilles near this
wave and low, mostly across Jamaica and Cuba from 15N-22N between
76W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 04N30W. The ITCZ continues from 04N30W to
09N48W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N50W to the coast
of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen in
the vicinity along the monsoon trough 02N-09N between 15W-22W and
along the ITCZ from 06N-14N between 41W-46W and between 51W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong upper level high is centered over the SE U.S. and
extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is preventing
deep convection. However, thunderstorms are noted along the
Florida Panhandle N of 29N and between 84W-86W. Showers are also
passing through SW Florida and moving over the water. The latest
scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh ENE winds in the
eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate easterly winds in the
western Gulf.

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge along the
northern Gulf coast and weak low pressure over the western
Caribbean will briefly support fresh to strong winds over the SE
Gulf tonight. This gradient will maintain generally moderate to
fresh easterly winds across the Gulf through Thursday. The low
will slowly move NW toward the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through
Thursday, then cross the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night and
move into the Bay of Campeche on Friday. Wind speeds will likely
diminish this weekend as the weak low or surface trough lingers
over the SW Gulf.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-level ridge is centered over the Lesser Antilles which is
bringing fair weather conditions across these islands and into
eastern Puerto Rico. Along western Puerto Rico/the Mona Passage
westward into Hispaniola, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection can be seen from 15N-20N between 67W- 73W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also seen near the Yucatan
through the Gulf of Honduras. The latest scatterometer shows
gentle to moderate E-NE winds in the eastern Caribbean. Light
winds are seen in the western basin with moderate to fresh winds
near Cuba and the western Yucatan.

Gentle to moderate trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh Wednesday night and
prevail through Saturday. A tropical wave over the SW Caribbean
will move across Central America Wednesday and into the east
Pacific on Thursday. The next tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean on Friday. Elsewhere, a broad area of low
pressure over the western Caribbean will slowly move NW toward the
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Thursday night. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the NW Caribbean as this low
progresses toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two lows are seen in the western Atlantic. A 1010 mb low is seen
near 23N70W with a trough extending along that low from 21N73W to
25N68W. This particular low has a low chance of development in the
next 48 hours. A 1011 mb low is seen near 30N67W with a trough
extending along the low from 26N69W to 32N64W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is occurring near these features from 20N-
31N between 57W-71W. A trough is also seen in the central Atlantic
from 25N48W to 31N41W with no significant convection associated
with it. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the Atlantic.
Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds in
the western Atlantic, N of 23N and W of 70W.

Easterly swell generated by distant Hurricane Lorenzo will affect
portions of the SW N Atlantic through Wednesday. Weak low
pressure SW of Bermuda, along with an associated surface trough,
will drift NE through Friday. The pressure gradient between this
low and high pressure north of the area will support moderate to
fresh NE to E trades with seas to 8 ft through tonight. A cold
front will drop southward into the northern waters this weekend,
with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected behind the front and
seas building greater than 8 ft north of 27N.

$$
AKR
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