[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 011454
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads
toward the Azores.  The eye has made a reappearance in infrared
satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the
surrounding ring of convection have cooled.  The advisory intensity
remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to
90 kt.  Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it
will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of
increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by
Wednesday.  The global models show the hurricane merging with a
frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours.  The
extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves
near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate
over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt.  The hurricane should
continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough
over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that
time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn
east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow.
The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the
first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement
on the eastward turn later in the period.  The updated NHC track has
been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the
multi-model consensus.  An additional southward and eastward
adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland
and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic.  Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2.  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe.  These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 35.2N  37.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 38.0N  34.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 42.8N  28.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 48.5N  21.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/1200Z 53.5N  16.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1200Z 56.0N   7.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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