[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 01 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 01/0300 UTC, is near 32.0N
41.2W. Lorenzo is moving NE, or 35 degrees, 17 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong within 450 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant. Lorenzo is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A hurricane warning and a tropical
storm warning have been announced for different parts of the
Azores. A warning typically is issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds or
hurricane-force winds. These are conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for
LORENZO are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO
are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3. Please go to the website, also,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: nothing
significant.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong in the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 270 nm to the west
of the wave from 13N to 17N, and in Colombia from 03N to 11N
between 73W and 77w.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 07N23W, and 09N36W. The ITCZ continues from
09N36W to 09N45W 08N48W, and to the coast of French Guiana near
05N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 270 nm S of monsoon trough between 23W and 31W,
and within 150 nm N of the monsoon trough between 24W and 28W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm to
the N of the ITCZ between the 43W/45W tropical wave and 51W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from
09N southward from 51W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper
level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A northern Gulf of Mexico coast surface ridge generally will
maintain moderate to fresh winds in the basin through Thursday.
Weak low pressure, developing in the western Caribbean Sea, will
support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the SE Gulf of
Mexico through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is about 90 nm to the SW of SE
Cuba. A 73W/75W tropical wave and its precipitation are just to
the east of the low pressure center.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to
propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea passages into Wednesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds will
prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is possible
that a broad area of low pressure may form in the western
Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week, and then move NW toward
the Gulf of Mexico..

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1009 mb low pressure center that is
near 31N64W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
center to 29N64W and 25N66W. A warm front extends from the 1009
mb low pressure center beyond 33N60W. Weak surface low pressure
extends southwestward from the 1009 mb low pressure center,
toward the Windward Passage. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong within 210 nm on either side of 32N53W 31N63W
25N69W, to the Windward Passage.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into
parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface
trough, to the N of Puerto Rico, will drift westward into the SE
Bahamas by Wednesday, and then to the NW Bahamas by Thursday
night. The trough will support fresh to locally strong NE-to-E
breezes in the NW Bahamas and the adjacent waters, through
Tuesday night.

$$
mt
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