[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 03N-19N,
moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance
and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-
09N between 33W-40W.

An eastern Caribbean wave is along 60W from 04N-20N, moving W at
15 kt. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave axis to
include the Lesser Antilles.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over N
Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over SW Honduras and El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W
to 10N30W to 06N45W. The ITCZ extends from 06N45W to the coast of
South America near 05N53W. Aside from the convection and showers
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from
12N-16N between 17W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-08N between 40W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low is over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N94W. A
stationary front extends SW from the low to Tampico Mexico near
22N98W. A stationary front extends NE from the low to S of Daytona
Beach Florida near 29N81W. Isolated moderate convection is within
90 nm of the front. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over S
Florida, the Straits of Florida, and Cuba, from 22N-26N between
80W-85W. More scattered showers are inland over the Yucatan
Peninsula and S Mexico. In the upper levels, an upper level low
is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 19N-22N between 94W-98W.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected northwest of the front
into early Friday. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds will prevail
ahead of the front, possibly increasing to strong tonight over the
NE Gulf of Mexico. The front will begin to devolve into a surface
trough Friday, then move inland and dissipate by Saturday.
Otherwise, each night a surface trough will form and move off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche accompanied with fresh
to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A small upper level low is centered N of N Colombia near 13N75W
enhancing scattered showers. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Costa Rica and Panama, due to the eastern
extent of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with an area of
strong trades in the Central Caribbean between 72W-76W.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend,
pulsing to near gale force during the nights along the coast of
Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand
northward towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward
Passage today as high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave
moves across the central basin. Winds in the northern-central
basin will diminish on Sat as the wave moves over the western
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N78W and
extends SW to S of Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the
Bahamas. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 38N39W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the the W Atlantic near 26N72W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 25N-32N between 65W-73W.

The W Atlantic front will dissipate on Fri. The pressure gradient
between the frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will
support moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through Thu.
Gentle to moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder of the W
Atlantic, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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