[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 03N-18N,
moving W at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance
and satellite imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-09N between 24W-34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-22N,
moving west at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-09N between 46W-51W. Scattered showers are elsewhere
within 180 nm of the wave axis south of 13N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 03N-19N,
moving west at 15 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle of
a strong outbreak of Saharan dust. No convection is present at
this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 05N-20N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, N
Colombia, and NW Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm
of the wave axis to include over Jamaica, Costa Rica, and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W
to 08N30W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 08N47W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N50W to 07N56W. Aside from
the convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section
above, scattered showers are within 300 nm south of the ITCZ
between 35W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 30N83W to S Texas near
26N97W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
front, mostly N of 26N. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection
is over S Mexico. 15 kt northerly winds are N of the front. 5-10
kt variable winds are S of the front. Of note in the upper levels,
a small upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico
near 27N85W. Another small upper level low is centered over the
Bay of Campeche near 21N94W.

The front will remain draped over the northern Gulf of Mexico
into late week. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will prevail to
the north of the front. Low pressure may form along this boundary
at the end of the week or weekend. Each night surface troughs will
move west off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, provide
for fresh winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, high
pressure will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Windward Islands
in advance of the next tropical wave. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest winds over
the south central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend,
pulsing to near gale force along the coast of Colombia and over
the Gulf of Venezuela during the nights. Strong winds will develop
south of Hispaniola beginning on Thu as high pressure
strengthens. A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands late
Wed night and move over the eastern Caribbean on Thu, with fresh
to strong winds east of the wave axis.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for more information on the
three tropical waves over the Atlantic.

Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic W
of 74W to include the N Bahamas. A 1023 mb high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 32N58W. Of note in the upper levels, a
small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 25N70W.
Upper level diffluence NE of the center is producing isolated
moderate convection from from 25N-30N between 64W-70W.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure oriented along 28N will
gradually slide south and east and weaken this week, allowing a
weakening cold front to enter the northwest waters Thursday. This
front will stall and dissipate by this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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