[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 23/1500 UTC...the remnants of T.D. Three are centered near
29.0N 80.0W, moving N at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. The low should remain offshore the coast of the
southeastern United States and dissipate by 24/0000 UTC. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas through
tonight. At this time, scattered moderate convection is north of
24N between 73W-80W. See the last NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis
extending along 24W from 02N-19N. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate
convection prevails east of the wave from from 07N-10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from
02N-22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N-
10N between 40W-50W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W from
02N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within
the middle of a strong outbreak of Saharan dust, therefore no
convection is present at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W from 05N-
20N, is moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted
inland over the southern portion of the wave currently moving
across Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over
Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over W Venezuela and N Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 09N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to 10N44W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 09N47W to 08N53W. Aside from the
showers mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered
showers are noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored over the
west Atlantic. A 1014 mb surface low is centered over the Texas
coastline, with frontal boundary extending along the coast and
reaching northern Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is
developing ahead of the front across the northwest Gulf, mainly
north of 26N and west of 92W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the basin.

The cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico through
Wed, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevailing behind the
front. The front will stall from the Florida Big Bend to near
Brownsville on Wed night, then dissipate through Thu. Weak high
pressure will build over the NE Gulf Fri and Sat. A surface trough
will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, supporting fresh
to occasionally strong winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
for details.

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the south-central
Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough south of 10N
between 76W-81W. This activity is also affecting portions of
Central America. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin, with highest winds over the south central
Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain pulsing fresh to
strong trades in the south-central Caribbean through Sat,
becoming near-gale force along the coast of Colombia and over the
Gulf of Venezuela at night. Strong winds will develop south of
Hispaniola beginning on Thu as high pressure strengthens. The next
tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands by late Wed night
and move over the eastern Caribbean on Thu, resulting in fresh to
strong winds behind the wave axis.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on the former T.D Three. Two tropical waves are also
over the Atlantic. See the section above for details.

Surface ridge extends along 29N covering the basin, anchored by a
1024 mb high near 29N60W and a 1025 mb high near 29N35W.

The remnants of T.D. Three near 29.0N 80.0W 1014 mb
at 11 AM EDT are moving N at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. T.D. Three will dissipate by this evening. A cold
front will move into the NW waters by Thu, become stationary Thu
night, then gradually weaken over the NW portion Fri and Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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