[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Three is centered near 27.0N 79.5W at 23/0900
UTC or 30 nm ENE of West Palm Beach Florida moving N at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression should remain offshore the coast of
the southeastern United States through Wednesday. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas through
today. Widely scattered moderate convection is over a large area
from 24N-32N between 74W-80W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 41W/42W from
02N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N-10N
between 36W-44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 03N-18N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle of a
strong outbreak of Saharan dust, and no convection is present.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 03N-18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-08N
between 57W-61W, including over Guyana. Similar convection is
also over the Leeward Islands from 14N-17N between 62W-64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over
Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over W Venezuela and N Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
13N16W to 10N24W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to
07N50W. Aside from the showers mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of
the monsoon trough over W Africa from 06N-12N between 11W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over the N Gulf along 30N. 5-10 kt
variable winds are over most of the Gulf. 15-20 kt NE winds are
along the Yucatan Peninsula coast. Scattered moderate convection
is over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-21N between 91W-96W. In the
upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf
near 28N86W. Another small upper level low is centered over the
the SW Gulf near 22N95W.

A weak cold front will move into the northern half of the Gulf of
Mexico today, then stall from the Florida Big Bend to Corpus
Christi tonight, and dissipate through Wed night. Moderate to
fresh winds will follow the front. A surface trough will move off
the Yucatan Peninsula at night, supporting fresh to occasionally
strong winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See Above.

Isolated moderate convection is S of Cuba from 19N-21N between
74W-83W. Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the SW Caribbean S of 11N to include Costa Rica, Panama, and
N Colombia. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over the central Caribbean near 14N73W. Strong subsidence is over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri,
becoming near gale force along the coast of Colombia at night. The
high will strengthen on Thu, with winds increasing south of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on Tropical Depression Three. Two tropical waves are also over the
Atlantic. See above.

A high pressure ridge extends along 29N across much of the
northern Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high near 29N60W, and a
1024 mb high near 29N35W.

Tropical Depression Three will move to 29.6N 79.4W this
afternoon, 34.0N 76.5W Wed morning, then dissipate Wed afternoon.
Highest winds will remain east of the center. A surface trough
will move into the NW waters Thu, then linger the remainder of the
week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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