[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Three is centered near 25.6N 78.6W at 22/2100
UTC or 100 nm SE of West Palm Beach Florida moving NW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression should remain just offshore of the
east coast of Florida over the next day or so. Rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas and the east
coast of Florida through Tuesday. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over a large area from 23N-30N between 75W-80W. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...Tropical Depression Three

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 39W/40W from
02N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N-07N
between 36W-43W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 03N-18N, moving
W at 15 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle of a strong
outbreak of Saharan dust, and no convection is present.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W from 03N-18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N
between 56W-63W, including over portions of Suriname and Guyana.
Scattered showers are also north of 14N within 90 nm of the wave
axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W south of 19N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over
Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 10N26W. The ITCZ extends from 10N26W to 09N38W, then resumes W
of a tropical wave from 08N41W to 07N48W. The ITCZ continues W of
another tropical wave from 07N51W to the coast of Guyana near
07N58W. Aside from the convection previously described in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is S of the monsoon trough over W Africa from 07N-12N
between 08W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small 1016 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N86W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf. Scattered
moderate convection is over most of the landmass surrounding the
Gulf of Mexico, namely the Florida Peninsula, Cuba, the N Yucatan
Peninsula, S Mexico, NE Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana. In the upper
levels, a small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near
28N86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf
from 24N-29N between 83W-86W. Another small upper level low is
centered over the the SW Gulf near 22N95W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 22N-27N between 88W-95W.

A ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken tonight and
Tue, allowing a cold front to move into the northern portion of
the Gulf of Mexico Tue. The front will stall from near the
Florida Big Bend to S Texas Tue night and dissipate Wed night.
Gentle to moderate winds will continue across most of the basin,
except for fresh winds pulsing to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula
at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean, and another is entering the
E Caribbean. See Above.

Scattered moderate convection is over the N Yucatan Peninsula,
Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, N Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, and
Costa Rica. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over the central Caribbean near 14N73W. Strong subsidence is over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Fri,
pulsing to near gale force along the coast of Colombia at night.
High pres will build N of the area Thu. This will increase areal
coverage of the fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on Tropical Depression Three.

Elsewhere, a surface trough roughly 500-600 nm east of the
Bahamas is producing scattered moderate convection over the waters
from 23N-27N between 65W-68W. A high pressure ridge extends along
29N across much of the northern Atlantic to 1022 mb high pressure
analyzed near 29N61W. Earlier scatterometer data showed a large
area of fresh to strong northerly winds along the African coast
from Western Sahara to Senegal, including Cabo Verde.

Surface ridging dominating the Atlantic will move eastward on Tue
night as Tropical Depression Three moves N across the western
waters. A surface trough will move into the NW waters Thu, where
it will linger through the remainder of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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