[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near the coast of Africa along 13W from 03N-
16N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted mainly inland extending offshore to 18W and along the
African coast from Sierra Leone north to Senegal, 07N-13N.

A tropical wave is along 32W from 19N southward, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered showers are from 08N-11N between 31W-34W.

A tropical wave extends from 28N46W to 17N47W to 06N43W, moving
SW around 15 kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave
originated over the NE Atlantic. Scattered showers are seen in the
southern portion of the wave south of 09N. Most of the wave is
traveling through a drier enviroment limiting convection, which
is noted from 09N to 28N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W from 24N southward, moving
west at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature
on satellite imagery. Isolated moderate convection is over the N
apex of the wave from 22N-26N between 57W-62W. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are seen over portions of the Windward
Islands and E Caribbean from 13N-15N between 60W-65W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 08N-24N, moving west
around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are mainly confined to
over land areas of Hispaniola, Windward Passag, Cuba and Jamaica.
An area of scattered moderate convection is also noted remaining
inland in NW Colombia and eastern Panama.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N26W. The ITCZ extends from 09N26W to 09N31W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 07N34W to 02N50W near the
coast of Brazil. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon
trough from 08N-11N between 18W-22W and in the vicinity of the
ITCZ from 09N-11N between 28W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over much of the Gulf of Mexico, extending
from the subtropical ridge over the west Atlantic. ASCAT shows
gentle winds continue to prevail over much of the basin, with
some moderate SE winds over the southwestern and far western Gulf.
Above normal mid-level atmospheric moisture content in the
eastern Gulf is leading to scattered showers and tstorms along
the Florida Panhandle.

A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast
through Sun night, then weaken on Mon. Gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds will generally continue across the basin, except
fresh to occasionally strong winds to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula during the evening and overnight hours through the
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave
over the Central Caribbean and the wave approaching the Lesser
Antilles.

ASCAT from this morning shows strong winds from 11N-14N between
68W-73W, with fresh winds across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh
trades are also in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are
elsewhere. GOES-16 water vapor channels show that relatively dry
air covers portions of the central and NW Caribbean. The only
areas of significant precipitation in the Western Caribbean near
the land areas of Cuba and Jamaica, as well as in the far SW
Caribbean south of 10N near the coast of Panama and Costa Rica
associated to the Pacific monsoon trough.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse across
the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

A pair of weak upper-level lows over the western Atlantic are
near 25N76W and 25N66W, respectively. The western one is aiding
in scattered showers and tstorms in the nothern Bahamas. Surface
ridging dominates the remainder of the basin, with a 1027 mb high
near 34N29W south of the Azores.

A high pressure ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds through Tue night. Winds will
pulse to fresh to strong between the southeastern Bahamas and
Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours through the period.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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