[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with
winds briefly increasing to gale-force over the NW coast of Colombia
Wed night due to low pressure deepening over northern Colombia.
Seas will build to 8-14 ft as a result of these winds. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa, with axis along 19W
from 03N-20N, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted east of the wave axis south of 12N to 07N
between 13W-23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 48W from
06N-22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along
the wave axis and south of 11N.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from 09N-
23N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the
southern portion of the wave mainly south of 11N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from
04N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along
and the wave axis between 80W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 21N17W to
05N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 04N48W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
showers are noted within 80 nm north and south of the monsoon
trough between 23W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1020
mb high centered south of the Apalachee Bay. With this, gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over Florida have
moved offshore reaching the far east Gulf coast mainly from 25N-
29N between 82W- 85W. This activity will dissipate tonight.
Scattered showers are also developing over the Yucatan Peninsula
reaching the Bay of Campeche at this time. This activity will
continue overnight as the usual thermal trough moves west from the
peninsula into the southwest Gulf.

A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast
through Sun night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will
generally prevail across the basin, except that winds will be
fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the
evening and overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave
traversing the central Caribbean.

Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave, only
scattered showers are noted across the remainder of the basin.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most
of the basin except between 75-82W, where moderate to fresh winds
prevail.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will
briefly increase to gale force along the Coast of Colombia Wed
night. Strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras each
night tonight through Thu night. A tropical wave along 81W will
exit the far western Caribbean Thu. A surge of fresh to strong
winds and building seas will accompany this wave. The next
tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean and will reach the
central Caribbean Thu night, then reach the western Caribbean Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

A surface trough extends from 29N66W to 28N66W. Scattered showers
are noted along the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near
34N38W.

High pressure dominating the basin will maintain gentle to moderate
E to SE winds over the Bahamas. The high will be strong enough to
generate fresh to strong east winds between the southeastern
Bahamas and Hispaniola through Fri night, primarily during the
evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MTorres
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