[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area will
support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
through the forecast period, with winds briefly increase to gale
force NW of the Coast of Colombia Wed night due to low pressure
over northern Colombia deepening. Seas will build to 8-14 ft as
a result of these winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 06N-
19N, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N-15N between 13W- 20W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 06N-20N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N
between 43W-48W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of
the axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 08N-22N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N
between 51W-59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 03N-18N, moving
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-17N
between 73W-78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 09N20W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 09N43W,
resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N47W and continues to 09N55W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered showers are within 180 nm of the axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
showers are over the southern Gulf south of 26N. Scatterometer
data shows mostly gentle winds across the NE Gulf. Southeast
moderate breeze winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf.

A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast
through Sat night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will
generally prevail across the basin, except for fresh to strong
winds, northwest of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and
overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
developing Gale Warning NW of the Coast of Colombia.

Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave
traversing the central Caribbean.

A small upper level low is centered over the NW tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula producing upper level diffluence over the NW Caribbean.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW
Caribbean. Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is over
the SW Caribbean to include Costa Rica and W Panama.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force NW of the Coast
of Colombia Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
will affect the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Thu night. A
tropical wave along 77W will move across the western Caribbean
Wed through Thu night. A surge of fresh to strong winds and
building seas will accompany this wave. The next tropical wave
will approach the Windward Islands this evening and move across
the eastern Caribbean Wed through early Thu evening, then across
the central Caribbean Thu night into Sat morning and across the
eastern part of the western Caribbean Sat night. Yet another
tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Thu and
approach the Windward Islands Thu evening. This wave will move
across the eastern Caribbean Fri through early Sat evening, and
move into the eastern part of the central Caribbean Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

A weak 1018 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N67W.
A surface trough extends SW from the low to 28N70W. Scattered
showers extend within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough
extends from 29N54W to 26N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of this trough. A 1027 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 34N39W.

The 1018 mb low over the W Atlantic will drift southwest to west
through Wed while dissipating. High pressure ridging will build
behind the low through Sat.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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