[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the West African coast has been added with an
axis along 14W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring inland, within 300 nm west of the
tropical wave between 8N-15N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are in 200 nm west of this
wave.

A tropical wave is noted along 46W from 24N to 13N. At this time,
no significant convection is associated with this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 69W from 18N southward, moving
W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted mostly on the west side of the wave from 12N-16N between
63W- 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 08N23W to 07N43W. The ITCZ continues from
07N43W to 11N57W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen 150 nm south of
the monsoon trough from 25W-31W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 50 nm of the entire ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Barry is centered in west-central Arkansas,
with outer bands of convection still continuing across the NW
Gulf. This convection is seen N of 27N and W of 91W. Surface
ridging is seen in the eastern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb high in
SW Georgia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen
moving across S Florida and the Florida Keys into the SE Gulf,
from 23N-25N between 81W-84W. Scatterometer data shows mostly
gentle winds across the Gulf. Moderate winds are in the Bay of
Campeche, associated with the diurnal trough seen from 23N92W to
20N94W.

Remnant winds and seas associated with now distant Barry will
diminish over the N central Gulf today. High pressure will become
established in the NE Gulf during the early part of the week,
where it will remain thereafter. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
will dominate the basin, occasionally fresh to strong W-NW of the
Yucatan peninsula during the evening and early morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the tropical waves discussion on the tropical wave traversing
the Caribbean.

Scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Mona Passage into
the eastern Caribbean and across Jamaica. Scattered thunderstorms,
enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough, are seen in the SW
Caribbean from 10N-14N between 78W- 83W. Convection associated
with the tropical wave along 85W is enhancing convection across
Nicaragua and Honduras, with some convection occurring north of
Honduras from 16N-17N between 81W-86W. Scatterometer data shows
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean with
light winds in the SW basin and gentle winds in the NW basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will be over the Gulf of
Honduras Wednesday through Thursday night. A tropical wave near
70W will reach the central Caribbean Tuesday and Tuesday night,
then the western Caribbean through the end of the week. A surge of
fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave
in the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough enters the western Atlantic waters from 31N78W to
30N79W. An area of scattered thunderstorms is seen in near this
trough from 29N- 31N between 76W-80W. Meanwhile, a 1019 mb low is
seen near 28N68W with convection occurring around the low center.
A trough is extending from the low from 29N62W to 27N70W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are seen near this feature, from 27N-
30N between 61W-72W. Two more surface troughs are analyzed in the
Atlantic: the first from 31N55W to 27N60W, and the second from
30N50W to 24N53W. No significant convection is associated with
these two features. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of
the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high near 33N38W. Scatterometer
data shows moderate to fresh northerly winds are seen along the
west coast of Africa, N of 17N and E of 27W.

A trough over the W Atlantic near 30N78W will move W,
reaching the Florida Peninsula by early Tuesday. Another trough
will move W of 65W by Wednesday, weakening as it moves across the
Bahamas Thursday and Friday. The third trough will move between
65W and 70W Friday and Friday night. Otherwise, high pressure will
dominate the basin through the next several days bringing gentle
to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong
trades will pulse mainly during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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