[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS84 KLIX 110955
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LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-111800-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service New Orleans LA  AL022019
455 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This product covers Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi

...SYSTEM IS ALMOST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Orleans, St. Charles,
      Upper Jefferson, Upper Plaquemines, and Upper St. Bernard
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Lower St. Bernard
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Assumption, Lower Jefferson, Lower Lafourche, Lower
      Plaquemines, Lower Terrebonne, Upper Lafourche, and Upper
      Terrebonne

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 210 miles southeast of New Orleans LA or about 210 miles
      south-southeast of Gulfport MS
    - 27.5N 88.2W
    - Storm Intensity 30 mph
    - Movement West or 260 degrees at 5 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

OVERVIEW...At 400 AM CDT, the disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. The system is moving toward
the west near 5 mph, but a west-northwest motion is expected on Friday
followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical
storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late Friday. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana coast
on Saturday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across southeast Louisiana. Potential
impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
limited to extensive impacts across southern Mississippi.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across south-central Louisiana and the near coastal areas. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across interior portions of southeast Louisiana
into coastal Mississippi and southwest Mississippi.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across lower Louisiana, particularly near the mouth of
the Mississippi River and in the Atchafalaya Bay area. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across east facing shores of Louisiana.

Elsewhere across Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra
time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your
vehicle ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure
loose items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New Orleans LA around 8 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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