[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT32 KNHC 102332
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the broad disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.9 North, longitude 87.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west is expected on Thursday, followed by west-northwest motion on
Friday and a northwestward motion by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf
Coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression early
Thursday, a tropical storm by Thursday night, and a hurricane on
Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is expected to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm on Thursday.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1010 mb (29.86
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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