[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 15N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 10N to 12N between 15W and 18W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the
area that is from 05N to 20N between Africa and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 11N
southward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 08N along the
wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
06N to 08N between 29W and 34W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the area that is
from 03N to 11N between 22W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 18N
southward. Broken low level to middle level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 20N southward between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from SW Haiti to 14N76W to
08N76W in Colombia. Scattered strong rainshowers were occurring
just to the west of Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela and in N
Colombia near 10N74W, during the last six hours or so. The cloud
top temperatures have been warming and the precipitation has
been dissipating/weakening with time. The wave will produce
strong trade winds on Sunday and Sunday night, along and to the
east of the wave, as the wave moves across the Caribbean Sea,
before reaching Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N25W to 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from
07N34W to 07N45W, and to French Guinea near 04N53W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 12N
between 41W and 43W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from
13N southward from 60W eastward, not counting any precipitation
that is related to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is in the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
much of the Gulf of Mexico. The only area that does not have the
upper level anticyclonic wind flow is in the westernmost part of
the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough passes through the
area of the upper Texas Gulf coast, in the coastal waters of
Texas, and in the coastal waters of Mexico, toward 20N along the
coast of Mexico, near the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N91W.

Broad surface low pressure is inland, in the SE U.S.A. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the eastern part
of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N northward from 90W eastward.
Convective debris clouds, from earlier rainshowers, are within
90 nm of the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A weak surface ridge will dominate the basin the entire period.
An area of low pressure in the SE CONUS supports scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight in the E Gulf of Mexico.
Another area of low pressure will develop in the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening, increasing the wind
speeds to near gale-force on Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to W/SW
Guatemala. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea from NW Cuba to the eastern part of Honduras. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is to
the NW of the line that runs from the Windward Channel to
eastern Honduras. Rainshowers are possible in the Mona Passage.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, except for an upper level trough that runs
from Puerto Rico to 15N64W to NE Venezuela.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday, pulsing to near gale-force
during the overnight hours off the coast of Colombia through
Sunday. A new tropical wave will enter the E Caribbean Sea on
Sunday, and it will move to the central part of the Caribbean
Sea on Monday night. A second wave will enter the E Caribbean
Sea on Monday night into Tuesday, with rainshowers and winds to
near gale-force associated with it.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low level to mid level trough near northern Florida is drawing
moisture toward the area. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N66W to 26N80W.

A cold front passes through 32N44W to 29N50W to 28N57W. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the north of the line that passes through
32N37W 27N50W 25N60W 32N64W.

A surface trough is along 30N61W, to a 1021 mb low pressure
center that is near 29N64W, to 27N67W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 25N northward between 60W and 70W.

High pressure will dominate the region during the entire period.
Low pressure, developing in the SE CONUS on Sunday, will meander
in this region, supporting moderate to fresh southerlies in the
NW waters. Fresh to strong winds are expected off Hispaniola
late tonight, in the wake of a tropical wave that is moving
through the central Caribbean Sea. The winds will resume N of
Hispaniola on Tuesday, as a new tropical wave moves into the
central Caribbean Sea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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