[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 35W south of
12N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 05N-
08N between 33W-36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 44W south of
17N, moving W around 20 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this feature at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 68/69W, southward
of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 200 nm either side of the wave
axis, particularly along the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
eastern Dominican Republic. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen
in the Caribbean from 15N-19N between 65W-71W. The wave will
continue to enhance shower activity for the ABC Islands and
Hispaniola tonight into early Saturday. The wave will also
strengthen the trade winds across most of the Caribbean through
Saturday as it passes across the forecast area, before reaching
Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N20W to 08N33W. The ITCZ begins near 07N35W to
08N44W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 07N46W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen moving along the monsoon trough from 06N-11N between
16W-25W. Scattered showers are seen along the ITCZ from 04N-10N
between 36W-41W in addition to an area from 05N-08N between 48W-
51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep-layered ridging covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1020 mb
surface high is near 29N92W. A surface trough is analyzed from
30N85W to 26N88W. The western Gulf remains fair at this time with
light to gentle southeasterly winds. The central and eastern
basin has scattered moderate convection, particularly along the
coast of Florida. Most of this activity is east of 92W.
Additionally, convection off the coast of Cuba is moving north
into the southeast Gulf. A line of numerous strong thunderstorms
are moving off the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche, mostly from
19N-21N between 90W-91W. The rest of the basin also has light to
gentle winds.

High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the Gulf. A weak
frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf late Monday,
then drift SE and linger through Wednesday, where broad low
pressure may develop.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean.

Mid-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western Caribbean
Sea. Thunderstorms prevail across Cuba and Jamaica with some of
this activity moving into adjacent waters. Otherwise, see the
discussion above for more information on convection impacting the
eastern half of the Greater Antilles. Trades across the central
and eastern basin are moderate to fresh, with strong winds north
of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are in the western Caribbean.

Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail will across the central
Caribbean through the weekend, pulsing to near gale force during
the overnight hours off of Colombia. The active tropical wave
along 69W will cross the central Caribbean tonight and Saturday,
then reach Central America on Sunday. Fresh trades and seas to
around 8 ft will linger across the tropical N Atlantic waters
behind this tropical wave through this evening. The next
significant tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles Monday
night and reach 70W Tuesday evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical
wave in the Atlantic.

A surface trough extends from 31N74W to 27N79W and has convection
along it. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen across the
northern Bahamas. There is a 1021 mb low near 30N64W with a trough
extending along the low from 31N59W to 29N68W with no significant
weather associated with it at this time. The remainder of the
basin is under ridging anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N38W.

High pressure across the central Atlantic will build modestly
westward and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend.
Fresh to strong winds are expected N of the Greater Antilles this
evening through Saturday as an active tropical wave moves through
the central Caribbean, and then again Tuesday through Wednesday
associated with the next significant tropical wave.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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