[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis at 05/1200 UTC
along 33W from 02N-12N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave shows up in
model diagnostics, CIRA LPW imagery and long loop IR satellite
images. Scattered showers are seen from 05N-08N between 29W-36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 17N southward,
moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
from 04N-08N between 36W-48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65/66W from 05N-20N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms
are within 150 nm either side of the wave axis. This includes
Puerto Rico and vicinity. Scattered moderate convection is seen
over NE Venezuela just south and west of Trinidad. The wave will
enhance shower activity for the ABC Islands and Hispaniola tonight
into early Sat. The wave will also strengthen the trade winds
across most of the Caribbean through Saturday as it passes across
the forecast area, before reaching Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 10N20W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins near 07N35W to 07N40W,
and continues W of a tropical wave from 06N44W to 05N52W. Numerous
moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen from
06N-13N between the coast of Africa and 21W. Elsewhere along and
within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 29W, scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are present. Along and north of the
ITCZ west of 50W, scattered moderate convection is seen near the
coast of South America from 04N-07N between 50W-59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep-layered ridging covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb
surface high is near 27N91W, with mostly fair weather over the
western Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed over the NE Gulf of
Mexico from 29N85W to 25N86W, with scattered showers and isolated
tstorms over the eastern Gulf.

High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the Gulf. A weak
frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf late Mon,
then drift SE and linger into mid-week, where broad low pressure
may develop.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean. Mid-upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the western Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are seen north of 19N between 76W-85W.

Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through the weekend, pulsing to near gale force during
the overnight hours off of Colombia. The active tropical wave over
the eastern Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean tonight,
then Central America on Sun. Fresh trades and seas to around 8 ft
will linger across the tropical N Atlc waters today east of the
Lesser Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N71W to near Grand Bahama Island.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near the trough as well
as over portions of the NE Bahamas, Florida Straits and South
Florida. Another surface trough is from 31N62W to 29N65W.
Scattered showers are near the trough and east of the trough along
30N-32N between 55W-65W. The remainder of the central and eastern
Atlantic is under a ridge, anchored by a 1027 mb high near 32N40W.

High pressure across the central Atlc will build westward and
into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds are expected N of the Greater Antilles today and Sat
as an active tropical wave moves through the central Caribbean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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