[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15N37W 09N36W 04N35W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 04N to 12N between 30W and 37W.  The wave shows up well in
model diagnostics and the TPW product.

A well defined Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from
19N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 12N to 18N between 60W and 66W. The
forecast is for the wave to impact Puerto Rico and the UK/US
Virgin Islands on Friday, bringing enhanced rainshowers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds. It is likely that moisture that
is associated with this wave may reach Hispaniola late Friday
into Saturday. This wave also is forecast to strengthen the
trade winds across most of the basin through Saturday, as it
passes across the forecast area, and then reach Central America
on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N24W to 09N30W and 08N34W. The ITCZ continues from
08N34W to 08N36W 05N48W, and into the coastal areas of Brazil
near 03N52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 11N from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf
of Mexico. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 28N91W.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the east
of 88W, and along the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Weak high pressure will continue in the Gulf of Mexico through
the weekend. Expect gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds in the
Gulf of Mexico. A weak frontal boundary will sink southward into
the NE Gulf late on Monday. The front will drift SE, and linger
through Tuesday, where broad low pressure may develop.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the
north and northwest of the line that runs from 12N in Nicaragua
to eastern sections of Hispaniola. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N northward
from the Windward Passage to the Yucatan Peninsula. This area
mainly consists of the Windward Passage, and the coastal waters
of Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side.

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across south central parts
of the Caribbean Sea tonight. An active tropical wave is moving
into the far eastern Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds will
increase across most of the basin through late Sunday, as the
tropical wave reaches along 75W Saturday morning, then reaches
Central America on Sunday. Fresh to strong trade winds, and seas
to 8 feet, will linger in the tropical N Atlantic waters
from tonight through Friday, behind the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough is at the SW part of a dissipating stationary
front, along 31N61W, to a 1019 mb low pressure center that is
near 30N65W, to 28N68W. A separate surface trough is along
29N71W to 28N74W to 26N75W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to
the west of the line that runs from 32N50W 31N60W, to the
Windward Passage.

The current cold front will drift NW and dissipate slowly
through Friday. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will
build westward and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the
weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of the Greater
Antilles on Friday and Saturday, as an active tropical wave
moves through the central Caribbean Sea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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