[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 18N southward.
ITCZ-related precipitation is from 05N to 09N between 30W and
37w. The wave shows up well in model diagnostics and the CIRA
layered precipitable water images.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 18N
southward. The TPW images were showing a large area of enhanced
moisture with this wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of the line from
07N51W to 13N54W to 14N56W, and from 10N to 12N between 60W and
63W. This wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean Sea
from Thursday through Friday, bringing enhanced rainshowers with
thunder and gusty winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N18W and 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from
06N38W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 05N to 09N between 26W and 35W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 09N between 40W
and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 06N to 10N between Africa and 26W, and elsewhere from 03N
to 10N between Africa and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf
of Mexico. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 27N89W.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the SE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 26N southward between 81W and
83W.

Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the upcoming
weekend. Expect gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of Mexico.
A trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula during the
afternoon and move westward into the Bay of Campeche each
evening, bringing a brief period of fresh to locally strong
winds to the south central Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the
north and northwest of the line that runs from the coast of
central Nicaragua to Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N northward
from the Windward Passage to the Yucatan Peninsula. This area
mainly consists of the Windward Passage, and the coastal waters
of Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the
Caribbean Sea, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean, from Dominica
near 15N to 20N between 57W and 64W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, to 08N79W,
across southern sections of Panama, beyond 10N85W in Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in NE Costa Rica at the border with
Nicaragua.

A tropical wave will move into the Caribbean Sea today. The
trade winds will strengthen across most of the basin through
Saturday, as the tropical wave moves across the forecast area,
and then it reaches Central America on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 17N northward between 50W and 70W. An area of upper
level cyclonic wind flow is near 25N65W, surrounded by the other
individual areas of upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward
between 50W and 70W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
also is from 74W westward.

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N58W to 28N66W to
27N69W. A surface trough continues from 27N69W to 26N71W and
23N72W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is
from 20N northward between 50W and 70W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
elsewhere from 20N northward between Africa and 50W.

The current stationary front will dissipate slowly through
Friday. High pressure will build N of 28N through Friday night,
and persist into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected
N of Hispaniola on Friday and Saturday, as a tropical wave moves
through the central Caribbean Sea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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