[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
720 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 30W from
03N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 05N-07N between 28W-34W. The wave shows up well in
model diagnostics and the CIRA layered precipitable water product.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 03N-17N, moving
W around 20 kt. The TPW product shows a large area of enhanced
moisture with this wave. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen
from 09N-12N between 46W-59W. This wave is forecast to impact the
eastern Caribbean Thursday through Friday, bringing enhanced
showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W and continues to 08N22W. The ITCZ begins near 08N22W to
07N28W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 06N32W to
06N51W. Aside from shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with tropical waves as described above, scattered moderate
convection is seen along and just N of the ITCZ between 35W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep-layered ridging prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A
surface high of 1018 mb is analyzed at 28N89W. A small area of
scattered showers and isolated tstorms is found in the west-
central Gulf from 23N-26N, west of 93W. Plenty of thunderstorm
activity is seen along the immediate coast and inland due to
afternoon heating over Florida, western Louisiana and Texas.
However, out over the open waters of the Gulf, most of the basin
is free of any significant showers or tstorms. The ASCAT pass from
Wednesday morning showed light to gentle winds over the NE and
central Gulf due to the high pressure, with moderate SE winds over
the southwestern Gulf.

Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the upcoming
weekend, resulting in gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf. A
trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the
afternoon and move westward into the Bay of Campeche each evening,
bringing a brief period of fresh to locally strong winds to the S
central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level ridging covers much of the Caribbean, along with dry
Saharan air. Fair weather prevails across most of the open waters
of the Caribbean. However, due to afternoon heating of land,
scattered showers and tstorms are seen near and over Cuba,
Hispaniola, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Also, in the far SW
Caribbean, numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong
convection is seen south of 12N west of 80W just offshore the
coast of Costa Rica and Panama. This is associated with the East
Pacific monsoon trough and a tropical wave west of the area along
86W. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday morning showed fresh to strong
winds in the south-central and SW Caribbean, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere.

Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through early Thu before a well organized tropical wave
moves into the eastern Caribbean and strengthens the trades across
all but NW portions of the basin through Sat. This tropical wave
will enter the eastern Caribbean Thu, reach 70W Fri morning, reach
80W late Sat, then move into Central America Sun afternoon. The
wave will contain enhanced showers and tstorms during its trek
across the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 32N57W to 27N65W to 24N74W. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 24N61W to 30N58W. Isolated showers
prevail near the trough and front. Ridging prevails over the
eastern and central Atlantic, anchored by a 1029 mb high near
34N35W.

The stationary front extending from 32N57W to 24N74W will lift
northward while dissipating through Thu. High pressure will build
in northern waters Thu through Fri night, and persist through the
weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of Hispaniola Fri
and Sat as a tropical wave moves through the central Caribbean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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