[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
735 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W
from 05N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in
model guidance and TPW imagery shows an increase in moisture
behind the wave's axis. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm
on either side of the wave's axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 03N-17N
is moving W at 15-20 kt. A trade wind surge trails the wave.
Model diagnostics depict this wave very well, and TPW imagery
shows a maximum in moisture content across the wave's environment
mainly south of 15N. Scattered moderate convection is within 150
nm on either sides of the wave axis from 08N-11N. This wave is
forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by Thu through Fri,
bringing enhanced showers and tstorms with gusty winds.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 77W and south
of 16N, is moving W around 20 kt. Latest TPW imagery shows
moisture in the wave's environment south of 15N and between 75W-
83W. Scattered showers are noted where the wave interacts with the
monsoon trough mainly south of 10N.

A tropical wave is over Central America with axis along 86W,
extending S into the East Pacific. Scattered showers and tstorms
are prevailing south of 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coastal Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W and continues to 09N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 07N40W. The ITCZ resumes west a tropical wave
near 05N46W to 04N52W. Aside from shower and tstorm activity
associated with tropical waves as described above, scattered
showers and tstorms are noted over Africa ahead of the next
tropical wave.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level troughing extends from central Texas to north-central
Mexico. Persistent deep layered southerly winds to the east of the
trough extend over the western Gulf of Mexico. These winds
continue to advect abundant moisture northward over the western
Gulf. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted over
the northwest Gulf north of 26N and west of 90W. This activity
will continue through tonight before drier conditions will
decrease shower activity by Wed.

A weak high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf through the
upcoming weekend, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds
across the region. A trough will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each day and move across the Bay of Campeche during the
evening, bringing fresh to locally strong winds to the SW Gulf
through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

Upper level ridging prevails across most of the basin supporting
fair weather. The only area of shower activity prevails south of
10N between 78W-82W and is related to the EPAC's monsoon
trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across most of the basin except south of 13N between 70W-80W,
where fresh to strong winds prevail.

The gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and
low pressure in Colombia will support strong to near gale force
winds each night off the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela
through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere
across the Caribbean the next several days. A tropical wave is
forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by Thu through Fri,
likely reaching the central Caribbean from Fri night into Sat. It
will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Strong gusty winds can be expected with this activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic. It is analyzed
as a cold front from 31N59W to 28N69W, then as a stationary front
from that point to 30N73W. The front becomes weak through 31N78W.
A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N59W to 24N76W. Upper-level
diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm
of this trough. Farther S, a surface trough is approaching the
Leeward Islands, extending from 19N57W to 15N57W. Surface ridging
covers the eastern Atlantic east of 50W, anchored by a 1029 mb
high centered near 35N30W.

The frontal system mentioned above will dissipate by Wed. High
pressure will build over northern waters Thu through Sat night,
which will support pulsing fresh to strong winds north of
Hispaniola each evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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