[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 22W from
05N-20N is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms
are seen within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N-11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 42W from 03N-17N
is moving W at 15-20 kt. A trade wind surge trails the wave.
Model diagnostics depict this wave. The total precipitable water
(TPW) imagery shows a maximum in moisture content across the wave
axis south of 15N. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm
of the wave axis from 07N-10.5N. This wave is forecast to impact
the eastern Caribbean Sea Thu through Fri, bringing enhanced
showers and tstorms with gusty winds.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave with axis along 75W south
of 16N is moving W around 20 kt. Latest TPW imagery shows moisture
concentrated to the south of 15N and between 72W-80W. The wave is
moving through an area of broken multilayered clouds and upper-
level 15-25 kt SW winds that are in advance of an upper-level
trough over the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are near the
wave south 14N.

A tropical wave is over Central America with axis along 84W,
extending S into the East Pacific. Scattered showers and tstorms
are from 11N-13N between 81W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coastal Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W and continues to 09N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 07N39W. It resumes to the west of the tropical
wave along 42W at 06N44W to 04N52W. Aside from shower and tstorm
activity associated with tropical waves as described above,
scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 06N-11N between the
coast of Africa and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level troughing extends from central Texas to north-central
Mexico. Persistent deep layered southerly winds to the east of the
trough extend over the western Gulf of Mexico. These winds
continue to advect abundant moisture northward over the western
Gulf. A surface trough is located over the Bay of Campeche along
95W from 18N-22N. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong
convection is seen over the western Gulf north of 21N, west of a
line from 21N93W to 26N93W to 29N89W. Frequent lightning is
likely and locally gusty winds are possible with these storms.
Enhanced showers and tstorms will continue in the western Gulf
through tonight before drier conditions will decrease shower
activity Wed.

A 1018 mb surface high centered over the SE Gulf near 25N86W is
leading to fair weather south of 27N between 82W-90W. Deep layered
ridging is on top of the surface high. Weak high pressure will
then persist in the northern Gulf through the weekend. A trough
will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day and move across
the Bay of Campeche during the evening, bringing fresh to locally
strong winds to the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic near
26N46W southwestward to Puerto Rico, and from there it continues
southwestward to near 14N83W. Dry air is under and NW of the
upper-trough axis from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to the NE coast
of Honduras. Upper-level southwest to west winds of 20-30 kt are
southeast of the trough. These winds are advecting some upper-
level moisture in the form of broken high clouds east-northeastward
to across the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Only a few
isolated showers are around the southern and SE Caribbean. In the
SW Caribbean scattered showers and tstorms are seen S of 10N, and
from 11N-13N between 81W-84W, in association with the East
Pacific monsoon trough and a tropical wave along 84W. Scattered
tstorms are also affecting Panama. Latest scatterometer pass shows
strong trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia S of 14N. A large area of fresh trades surrounds that,
with moderate winds in the eastern Caribbean and gentle in the NW
Caribbean.

The gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and
low pressure in Colombia will support strong to near gale force
winds each night off the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela
through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere
across the Caribbean the next several days. A tropical wave is
forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean Sea Thu through Fri,
likely reaching the central Caribbean Fri night into Sat. It will
be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Strong
gusty winds can be expected with this activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends into the area from 32N59W to 29N67W to
31N77.5W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 29N63W to
26N71W. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm of a line extending from 25N69W to 26.5N63W
to 31N57.5W, as of 1700 UTC. Farther S, a surface trough
containing isolated showers extends from 15N57W to 19N54W. Surface
high pressure ridging covers the eastern Atlantic east of 50W,
anchored by a 1030 mb high near 35N28W.

The weak cold front mentioned above running through 29N67W will
stall tonight and dissipate on Wed. High pressure will build over
northern waters Thu through Sat night, which will support pulsing
fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola each evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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