[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar is centered near 32.8N 55.2W at 31/0300 UTC or
490 nm E of Bermuda moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate convection prevails north of 31N
between 53W-59W. Oscar is forecast to move towards the north-
northeast with an increase in forward speed through Friday.
Some slight weakening is forecast during the next several days,
but Oscar is expected to become a powerful post-tropical low over
the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of
Mexico by early Thursday and continue moving southeast through the
basin. A pre-frontal squall line with strong thunderstorms is
likely within 180 nm ahead of the front over the northern Gulf,
mainly north of 27N. The squall line should enter the NW Gulf from
the Texas coast by Wednesday night. Strong to near-gale winds are
expected near this activity, with seas ranging between 6-9 ft.
Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from 01N to 12N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at
700 mb and TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content
in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection extends
180 nm on either side of the axis from 03N- 11N.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 06N-15N. The wave
is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time. The tropical wave is expected
to weaken during the next 18 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 12N16W to 08N33W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N33W to 06N43W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical wave along 42W, scattered moderate convection is
within 105 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1023 mb high
centered over the Carolinas. Winds and seas will begin to increase
across the Gulf tonight as return flow sets up across the west
half of the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off
the Texas coast by early Thursday. The front will reach from
western Florida Panhandle to just south of Veracruz, Mexico by
Friday morning, and from South Florida to Yucatan Peninsula
by Saturday morning. A squall line with strong to near-gale force
winds is expected to develop just ahead of the cold front N of
27N. For more information in regards to this feature, see the
Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the west Atlantic to northeastern
Cuba. Scattered showers are noted north of Jamaica between 71W-
78W. Further south, scattered showers are south of 10N between
75W-82W, including the coast of NW Colombia and Panama due to the
monsoon trough proximity.

Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean, except for
fresh to strong trades in the south-central sections. Moderate
swell from Oscar will continue across the tropical Atlantic
waters and through the NE Caribbean passages through this morning.
A reinforcing Atlantic cold front will stall from W central Cuba
to N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, then lift north
and dissipate through Thursday. High pressure north of the front
will induce fresh trades across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic
waters through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N64W to 24N80W. To the east,
another cold front extends from 29N61W to 23N68W, then becomes
stationary to 20N74W. These fronts are located west of Hurricane
Oscar. Refer to the section above for more information about Oscar.
Scattered showers are observed extending from the north coast of
Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos Islands between 70W and the
eastern tip Cuba with the stationary front described above.

Over the northeast Atlantic, a cold front enters the region from
28N13W to 30N24W. Scattered showers are located along the front.
North of 29N and east of 25W, expect winds 20 to 30 kt and seas
8-12 feet, due to a north swell, through early Thursday.

The cold front will reach from 26N65W to W central Cuba this
morning, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to NW Cuba late today
before dissipating late in the week. Swell associated with
Hurricane Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect all waters
but NW portions today.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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