[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar is centered near 29.7N 57.7W at 1500 UTC, moving
NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm in the northern
semicircle and within 60 nm in the southern semicircle.
In the southeast quadrant, scattered moderate convection in bands
extends outward to 390 nm from the center. Oscar is forecast to
move towards the north-northeast with an increase in forward
speed through Friday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days, but Oscar is expected to become a powerful
extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late
Wednesday. PUBLIC ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header
WTNT21 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of
Mexico by early Thu and move eastward to the northeast Gulf of
Mexico by Thursday night. A squall line with strong thunderstorms
is likely within 180 nm ahead of the front over the northern
Gulf, mainly north of 27N. Winds associated with the squall line
may briefly reach gale force. The squall line should enter the NW
Gulf from the Texas coast Wednesday night.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 41W from 01N to 12N, moving west at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm on either side
of the axis from 02N to 11N.

A tropical wave that was previously located along 57W has been
relocated to 54/55W from 15N southward to near the border of
Guyana and Suriname. Total precipitable water imagery, 700 mb
model diagnostics and infrared satellite loops all indicate that
the wave is located along 54/55W. The wave is moving westward at
10-15 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis
between 09N to 13N between 50W to 57W. The tropical wave is
expected to weaken during the next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed over the continent of Africa east
of 16W. The ITCZ extends from 11N16W to 06N38W, then resumes from
05N43W to the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 300 nm south of the ITCZ and
240 nm north of the ITCZ between the coast of Africa and 37W. In
addition, scattered showers are seen from 14N-19N between the
coast of Africa and 40W. This activity is due to westerly mid to
upper-level winds transporting enhanced moisture over the region.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tail end of a cold front extends over Central Florida into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico from Fort Myers to 28N85W. There is no
significant convection associated with this front.

In the Bay of Campeche, most of the isolated showers from earlier
this morning have dissipated.

A 1025 mb high is centered over the Carolinas. Winds and seas
will begin to increase across the Gulf tonight as return flow sets
up across the west half of the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front
expected to move off the Texas coast early Thu. The front will
reach from western Florida Panhandle to just south of Veracruz,
Mexico Fri morning, and from south Florida to Yucatan Peninsula
Sat morning. A squall line with brief gale-force winds is expected
to develop just ahead of the cold front N of 27N. For more
information in regards to this cold front, see the Special
Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to
20N82W over the NW Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen from the north coast of Honduras to 18N
between 86W and the coast of Belize. Further south, clusters of
scattered moderate convection are south of 13N in the SW
Caribbean, and include the coast of NW Colombia and Panama.

The stationary front over the northwest Caribbean is expected to
dissipate later today. Moderate trades will persist across the
Caribbean, except for fresh to strong trades in the south-central
sections. Moderate NE swell from Oscar will continue across the
tropical Atlc waters and through the NE Caribbean passages through
Wed morning. A reinforcing Atlantic cold front will stall from W
central Cuba to N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Wed morning then
lift N and dissipate through Thu. High pres north of this front
will induce freshening trades across the Caribbean and tropical
Atlc waters late Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area 32N68W and extends to West Palm
Beach Florida. Low to mid level broken cloud cover is observed
along to within 60 nm ahead of the front east of 75W. A
dissipating stationary front extends from 30N65W to the southeast
Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are observed extending
from the north coast of Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos Islands
between 70W and the eastern tip Cuba.

An upper level low centered near 28N46W is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N to 30N between 40W to
45W. Over the northeast Atlantic, a cold front enters the region
from 32N11W to 31N15W to 32N22W to 36N28W. Scattered showers are
located within 180 nm of the front to the east of 16W. North of
29N and east of 25W, expect winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 8-12 feet,
due to a north swell, through early Thursday.

A reinforcing cold front moving into the waters off NE Florida
tonight will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
this afternoon, from 26N65W to W central Cuba Wed morning, then
stall and weaken from 24N65W to NW Cuba late Wed before
dissipating late in the week. Swell associated with Hurricane
Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect all waters but NW
portions through Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMT/ABH
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