[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Oscar at 29/1500 UTC is near 25.7N 57.8W.
OSCAR is moving W, or 270 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 984 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong
rainshowers are within 30 nm of the center. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 330
nm of the center in the E semicircle, and within 60 nm of the
center in the W semicircle. OSCAR will follow a trajectory toward
the NE, and stay as a hurricane for the next few days, until
Thursday. It will weaken into a tropical storm, and continue a NE
movement for a few days after that. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for
OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are
available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 11N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 06N to 10N between 32W and 37W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 13N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
within 240 nm to the east of the wave, and within 270 nm to the
west of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W, to 06N33W,
from 06N36W to 06N48W, to French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered to
numerous strong rainshowers are from 05N to 08N beween 09W and
13W, and from 04N to 09N between 28W and 33W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the
N of the ITCZ between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico near
27N89W. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from Tampico Mexico
near 22N97W to 20N96W, depicted by a wind shift. Overcast
multilayered clouds are over the SW Gulf S 0f 24N between 88W-98W.
Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the
upper levels mostly zonal flow is noted.

Expect the next cold front to enter into NW Gulf of Mexico early
on Thursday, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf
of Mexico early on Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N77W to the
Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N91W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean from 18N-
20N between 86W-88W. Further S, clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are over the SW Caribbean S of of 14N
to include Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. Further
E, scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola from 17N-19N
between 70W-72W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the
Leeward Islands.

Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean through Mon,
except for fresh to strong trades in the south- central sections.
High pressure building behind a weak reinforcing front will
support moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba Tue through
mid week, while maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds
elsewhere. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to northeast
Yucatan through Wed then dissipate late in the week. Expect a
return to fresh to strong trades from the tropical N Atlc to the
central Caribbean waters through late week as the high pressure
builds into the western Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N67W to 24N71W. A stationary front
continues through the central Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N77W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.

An upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 25N and W of
66W supporting the frontal system. An upper level low is centered
over the central Atlantic near 24N48W. Upper level diffluence E
of this center is producing scattered moderate convection from
20N-25N between 40W-47W.

The front over the W Atlantic will stall from near Bermuda to the
southern Bahamas Mon. A second cold front will move into the
waters off northeast Florida midday Mon, reach from near Bermuda
to South Florida Tue, then stall and weaken from 22N65W to the
Windward Passage by mid week before dissipating late in the week.
Swell in excess of 8 ft associated with Hurricane Oscar well east
of the area will impact the area generally east of 70W and north
of 22N early in the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
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