[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Oscar at 28/1500 UTC is near 25.5N
53.8W. OSCAR is moving W, or 270 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are within 400 nm to 500 nm of the center to
the E in a straight line. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere within 500 nm of the center in the N
semicircle. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within
330 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES
for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are
available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 10N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
02N to 12N between 23W and 33W. Some of the precipitation is
related to the tropical wave and some is related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/50W from 13N
southward, based on long-loop satellite imagery. ITCZ-related and
tropical wave-related widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 02N to 14N between 36W and 52W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 16N between 50W and 59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ starts at
the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, and it continues to
08N20W, 08N28W, 06N34W and 07N47W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 14N between 36W and
52W. Other widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 14N to 23N between 40W and 50W. This area
of precipitation is being stretched out, toward the northeast,
by the upper level wind flow.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across central Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to 23N96W
along the coast of Mexico, inland in Mexico beyond 21N102W. A
stationary front passes through 23N80W in the Straits of Florida,
across NW Cuba, through the Yucatan Channel, across the northern
part of the Yucatan Peninsula, curving into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico at the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N southward from 90W
westward.

Broad surface high pressure spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W.

The current NW Cuba-to-Yucatan Peninsula stationary front will
will meander about the NW Gulf of Mexico through Monday night,
before shifting NE of the basin. A new cold front will push
southward across the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico from Monday
night through Tuesday, then become diffuse on Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Strong surface high pressure N of the front will shift
NE into the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday and Thursday. It will
induce fresh return flow across the basin from late Tuesday
through Wednesday, before the next cold front drops into NW Gulf
of Mexico early on Thursday, and then it will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf of Mexico early on Friday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 15N northward
from 66W eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the upper
level wind flow that surrounds T.S. Oscar. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is in the same area. Upper level anticyclonic wind
flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea from 66W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond Costa Rica along 85W/86W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is
in the SW corner of the area. Scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers are from 13N southward from 76W westward.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea today,
except for fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
sections. A stationary front passes through NW Cuba, to the
Yucatan Channel, to the Yucatan Peninsula. The front will lift
northward, while gradually dissipating through Tuesday. Long
period NE swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will move into the
northern waters of the tropical N Atlantic Ocean, and through the
Caribbean Passages today, and dominate the seas through Tuesday
night. Strong surface high pressure will move E across the W
Atlantic Ocean from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.
This will allow for a return to fresh to strong trade winds from
the tropical N Atlantic Ocean to the central Caribbean Sea
waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W to 30N71W, 27N74W, and across
Andros Island in the Bahamas to 24N79W. The front becomes
stationary at 24N79W, and it continues SW across NW Cuba, into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 25N71W to 29N68W beyond 32N67W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N36W, about
950 nm to the ENE of T.S. OSCAR. It makes up part of a larger-
scale E-to-W oriented trough, and cyclonic wind flow that covers
the area that is from 25N northward from 40W eastward.

The current Bahamas-to-Cuba frontal boundary will move SE, and
reach from 30N65W to central Cuba by Monday evening. Long period
NE swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will move into the far SE
waters tonight, and continue across the entire area through
Thursday. A second and weak cold front will move into the
northwest waters late Monday afternoon and evening. It
is expected that the front will become stationary, nearly E
to W near 24N, and then across the central Bahamas on Wednesday.
The frontal remnants will lift N as a warm front in the western
half of the area on Thursday, in advance of the next cold front
that will be moving across the Gulf of Mexico at that time.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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