[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 25N46W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm of the
low pressure center in the NE semicircle. Warming cloud top
temperatures and weakening precipitation is within 270 nm of the
center in the SW semicircle. The environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for more development of this low pressure center.
It is likely that this system may become a tropical cyclone, or a
subtropical cyclone, later today or tonight while it moves
generally northward in the central Atlantic Ocean. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is
high. The low pressure center is forecast to turn westward,
eventually, and to remain well to the north or northeast of the
Lesser Antilles, through early next week. Please refer to the
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details.

The 06-hour HIGH SEAS FORECAST gives the forecast of GALE-FORCE
winds with the 1007 mb low pressure center, that is near 25N46W,
as of 26/1200 UTC. Expect gale-force winds within 60 nm in the NE
quadrant of the low center, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet
to 12 feet. The forecast is for possible tropical cyclone, at 06
hours, at 24 hours, and at 48 hours. Please read the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 12N southward,
based on long-loop satellite images. ITCZ-related precipitation
surrounds this tropical wave. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 11N
between 38W and 46W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal and
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, and it continues to 10N17W and 07N20W.
The ITCZ begins near 07N20W, and extends to 06N22W and 06N41W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
area from 04N to 09N between 10W and 24W, and from 05N to 10N
between 47W and 53W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1005 mb SE Alabama low pressure
center, through the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are within 200 nm on either side of the
cold front, from 22N to 28N, between the Florida west coast at
28N and the coast of Mexico at 22N. Rainshowers are possible also
from 22N to 28N from 90W westward.

The SE Alabama 1005 mb low pressure center, that is connected to
the current Gulf of Mexico cold front, will move ENE through
tonight, and it will be dragging the cold front across much of
the Gulf of Mexico. The front will be nearly stationary from
central Cuba to the SW Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. A second
and weak cold front will sweep across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
from Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by building high
pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 33N67W, to 27N68W, to 24N74W just
off the Bahamas, across the Bahamas and Cuba, into the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico.

Broad mid to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire
area.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 72W in NW Venezuela
beyond Costa Rica along 84W, continuing into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Nicaragua.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from
13N southward from 73W westward.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the
Caribbean Sea through Saturday. A cold front, that is crossing
the Gulf of Mexico, will become stationary across the Yucatan
Channel on Saturday night and Sunday. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds are expected in the south central Caribbean Sea on
Saturday night and Sunday, before weakening again from Monday
through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front passes through coastal SE Georgia, to 31N80W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 30N75W, to 29N69W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
NW of the line that runs from 21N70W at the southern part of the
SE Bahamas, to 28N63W, and beyond 32N62W. Rainshowers are possible
from 18N to 22N between 54W and 70W, near a remnant cloud line.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 18N to 23N between 32W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 19N to 22N between 32W and
37W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the area of
upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A cold front passes through 32N51W to 27N57W and 25N67W.
Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cold
front.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N
between Africa and 30W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb
low pressure center that is near 32N20W, to 30N19W 29N20W, and to
26N23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
29N northward between 15W and 23W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 25N northward between Africa and 30W.

A warm front, extending from southern Georgia to 29N70W, will
lift N of the area tonight as low pressure in SE Alabama tracks
east-northeastward. Strong E to SE winds E of Florida will
continue through Friday, as a low pressure center moves across
Georgia. A trailing cold front from the low will reach from 31N75W
into the NW Bahamas on Saturday, then stall and weaken from
around 31N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. A weak cold front will
move E of north Florida on Monday and Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net