[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough extends from 26N52W to a 1009 mb surface low
near 23N48W, to 18N44W. Two areas of numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection are noted east of the low - one from
21N-26N between 43W-47W, and the other from 20N-23N between 37W-
41W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
elsewhere to the north and east of the trough axis and low from
16N-27N between 36W-48W. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually
becoming better organized in association with the low. However,
recent satellite data indicate that the circulation is elongated
and the center is not yet well defined. This system will likely
become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today while it
moves generally northward over the central Atlantic. After that
time, the low is forecast to turn westward well to the north or
northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week. The
chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is high. Regardless of development, gales are expected in
the NE quadrant of the low beginning later this morning after 1200
UTC. Please refer to the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK,
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 12N southward
moving west at 5-10 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate
convection from 05N-11N between 40W-46W associated with this
tropical wave. The tropical wave is expected to weaken during the
next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W and continues to 09N18W to 07N22W. The ITCZ
begins near 07N22W and extends to 06N41W. The ITCZ then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 06N46W and continues to 05N50W.
Scattered moderate convection extends to 180 nm north and 210 nm
south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 17W-27W. Scattered
moderate convection extends to 150 nm north and 270 nm south of
the ITCZ between 27W-40W. Scattered moderate convection extends to
150 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 46W-51W. Another
area of scattered moderate to strong convection is present from
02N-05N between 09W-18W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring over the west African countries of
Guinea and northern Sierra Leone.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb surface low located just west of Hattiesburg Mississippi
extends a cold front through SE Louisiana near 29N90W to 22N95W,
where it becomes a stationary front. The stationary front extends
from that point to 21N97W. A warm front extends SE from the 1007
mb low to Pensacola Beach Florida to Apalachicola Florida to
Cedar Key Florida and across the Florida Peninsula to Daytona
Beach. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the
NE Gulf of Mexico north of 24N and east of the cold front.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring
along the stationary front in the western Gulf of Mexico and
inland over Mexico from 20N-24N near 99W-101W. Broken low clouds
are seen west of the front extending almost to the Texas coast.
Partly cloudy skies are south and east of the front. Quieter
weather also prevails over the eastern Gulf south of 24N.

The 1007 mb low pressure system over Louisiana and Mississippi
will move E-NE across the Gulf coast states through tonight,
dragging a cold front across much of the Gulf basin. The front
will be nearly stationary from central Cuba to the SW Gulf by Sat
night. Another cold front will cross the eastern two-thirds of the
Gulf from Sun night through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the western
and central Caribbean Sea south of 20N and west of 70W. A 1007 mb
surface low is along the N coast of Colombia near 10N75W. The
monsoon trough extends from this low westward along 10N to Costa
Rica and into the eastern Pacific. Scattered showers are seen
south of 15N and west of 78W, including over east-central
Nicaragua and portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring over northern
Colombia and far NW Venezuela and is possible over the Caribbean
waters south of 12N between 71W and 77W during the next few hours.
Some enhanced rainfall is possible through today in the SW
Caribbean Sea and in the southern half of Central America from
Nicaragua southward, due to an active monsoon trough in the
region.

Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Caribbean Sea
through Sat. A cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico will become
stationary across the Yucatan Channel Sat night and Sun. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are expected over the south-central
Caribbean Sat night and Sun before weakening again on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is moving eastward through the Atlantic
Ocean with cyclonic upper-level flow north of 19N between 47W-
64W. Anticyclonic upper-level flow is over the Bahamas region. A
cold front passes through 32N56W to 29N60W to 27N70W, where it
becomes a stationary front. The stationary front continues to
29N79W, where it becomes a warm front. The warm front continues to
Daytona Beach Florida to Cedar Key Florida and into the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is east of the cold front
extending from 31N54W to 25N57W to 21N63W. A second rather weak
surface trough extends between central Cuba and Andros Island
Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is north of 23N between
48W-56W. Scattered showers are also east of Florida mainly north
of 28N and west of 74W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed over portions of central and eastern
Cuba and surrounding waters due to the surface trough in the area.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean
north of 26N east of 32W. A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb
low pressure center that is near 32N22W to 29N20W. Scattered
moderate rainshowers cover the area that is north of 28N between
17W-23W.

The current frontal boundary that is along 27/28N east of Florida
will transition to a warm front later this morning ahead of a
developing low pressure system. E to SE winds will increase E of
Florida today as the low moves into Georgia. A trailing cold
front from the low will reach from 31N75W into the NW Bahamas on
Sat, then stall and weaken from around 31N69W to central Cuba on
Sun. Another cold front will move E of north Florida starting Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net