[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough is along 24N46W, to a 1010 mb low pressure
center that is near 21N48W, to 17N58W. The broad area of surface
low pressure and cyclonic wind flow is becoming better defined,
gradually. The surrounding precipitation pattern is showing signs
of organization. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong rainshowers are within 460 nm of the 1010 mb low
pressure center in the NE quadrant. The expected movement of the
low pressure center is northward during the next few days, into an
area where the environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for more development. It is likely that a tropical storm
or a subtropical storm may form by early this weekend. The system
is forecast to turn westward well to the north or northeast of
the Lesser Antilles through early next week. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
high. Please refer to the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK,
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 12N southward.
The position was changed slightly, based on long-loop satellite
imagery. Nearby isolated moderate rainshowers probably are more
related to the ITCZ.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from
08N16W, curving to 05N20W 07N32W, and 07N38W, and from 06N43W to
06N50W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of the line that
runs from 03N at the Prime Meridian, to 03N06W 05N15W 06N27W
06N50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N
southward between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from Marco Island Florida
to 27N89W. A warm front extends from that point to a 1010 mb low
just off the coast of Texas near 28N96W. A stationary front
extends southward from the low to 23N96W. National Weather Service
Doppler Radar indicates scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are along the Texas and western Louisiana coasts
from Houston to Lake Charles and extending inland. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms extend offshore of Texas and
Louisiana north of 28N.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is over the southern
Gulf of Mexico near 19N92W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the area that is from 22N southward between 89W and 96W. GOES-16
water vapor channels indicate relatively dry air over the
southwest Gulf, and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are
present.

A 1009 mb low pressure center, that is just inland along the
Texas/Louisiana border, will move E-NE across the Gulf coast
states through Friday. The low pressure center will be dragging a
cold front across much of the Gulf basin. The front will be nearly
stationary from central Cuba to the SW Gulf of Mexico by Saturday
night. A second cold front will cross the northern Gulf of Mexico
beginning on Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans
the entire area. Surface low pressure/cyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from 19N southward between 66W and 84W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 75 nm
on either side of the line that runs from NW Costa Rica to
14N80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the area of
the surface low pressure/cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N
southward from 76W westward. Some enhanced rainfall is possible
through the remainder of the work week, in the SW Caribbean Sea
and in the southern half of Central America from Nicaragua
southward, due to an active monsoon trough in the region.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea through Saturday. A cold front, that is crossing the Gulf of
Mexico, will become stationary across the Yucatan Channel on
Saturday night and Sunday. Fresh trade winds are expected in the
south central Caribbean Sea early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough has been digging through the Atlantic Ocean,
now reaching near 18N62W, just outside the NE corner of the
Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes through 32N61W, to 29N67W, and
28N71W. The front becomes stationary from 28N71W to 29N80W. A
surface trough is along 31N60W 26N61W 23N67W 22N73W, reaching the
SE Bahamas. A second surface trough extends from 22N77W to 26N79W
to 28N79W, in the NW Bahamas. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 480 nm to the east and
southeast of the 31N60W-22N73W surface trough, from 21N northward.
Other rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the rest of
the 31N60W-22N73W trough, and within NW Bahamas surface trough
also. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 25/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.96 in
Bermuda.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward from 35W eastward. A surface trough extends from a 1014
mb low pressure center that is near 34N24W, to 31N23W, to 29N24W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N
northward between Africa and 30W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
also are from 10N to 20N between Africa and 40W.

The current frontal boundary that is along 28N will transition to
a warm front later today, ahead of a developing low pressure
center. E to SE winds will increase E of Florida tonight and on
Friday, as the low pressure center moves into Georgia. A trailing
cold front from the low pressure center will reach from 31N75W
into the NW Bahamas on Saturday, then stall and weaken from
31N69W to central Cuba on Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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