[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 01N-10N moving
west around 15 kt. Model analyses indicate a 700 mb trough is
noted to the west in the vicinity of 36W or 37W. A moisture
maximum is seen accompanying the wave in Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N-10N
between 28W-37W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from Haiti southward
moving west around 10 kt. Aside from an isolated shower or two
along the wave axis from 14N-16N, no significant convection is
noted over the waters of the Caribbean with this wave. However,
scattered moderate thunderstorms are seen over northern Colombia
due to the southern portion of this wave and the monsoon trough in
the area. The wave is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the west coast of Africa near the
Senegal/Guinea-Bissau border near 12N17W and extends to 11N18W to
10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 10N30W, and resumes
west of a tropical wave at 10N34W to 10N41W to 08N50W to 09N60W.
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms extend from 10N-20N
between 20W-40W. Scattered showers are also seen from 10N-14N
between 40W-42W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also over the west African countries of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau
as well as the waters from 03N-11N east of 19W. The showers and
thunderstorms that were near Trinidad late Tuesday have mostly
dissipated, although cloud cover lingers in the area.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 23N80W in the Straits of
Florida and extends to 27N93W to a 1014 mb low pressure center at
26N94W. A stationary front extends from the low southward in the
western Gulf of Mexico to 19N95W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are along the front from 21N-25N in the southwest
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted near the front east of the low from 26N-28N between 89W-94W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover most of the north-
central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico north of 25N and east of
92W. Surface observations and ASCAT data indicate that winds
around 25 kt are occurring north of the low in the northwest Gulf.

The 1014 mb low pressure center will lift slowly N toward the
coast of Texas through Wednesday night, then ENE across the
northern Gulf Thursday and Friday. The low will drag a new cold
front across the Gulf waters Friday, with the front
becoming nearly stationary across the southern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W,
westward along 09N/10N to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over northern Colombia and the
southwest Caribbean from 08N-12N between 73W-76W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 10N-12N between
77W-83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring
over NW Venezuela from 09N-11N between 69W-73W. The rest of the
Caribbean is free of any significant convection under mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies.

Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Caribbean Sea
during the next several days. A cold front will become stationary
across the NW Caribbean Sat night and Sun. The winds are
expected to become fresh across the south central Caribbean Sea by
Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N60W to 24N70W to 23N75W to
23N80W continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen along the front from 25N-29N between 64W-
66W. Additional scattered rain showers are north of 27N between
65W and the east coast of Florida. A surface trough is analyzed
from 29N56W to 27N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from
27N-32N between 50W-57W.

A surface trough extends from 19N48W to 15N47W. Weak upper-level
troughing is present in this area, with weak upper-level ridging a
few hundred nm to the northeast. The surface trough is expected
to move slowly northward over the next few days into an area where
environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
tropical or subtropical cyclone development. A tropical or
subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser
Antilles.

Mid-upper level westerlies are pushing moisture from the trough
along 48W eastward across the eastern Atlantic. Widespread
cloudiness along with scattered showers covers the eastern
Atlantic from 25N southward to the ITCZ and monsoon trough and
east of 48W to the coast of Africa.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N
northward between Africa and 35W. A 1014 mb low pressure center
is near 34N26W. Scattered to numerous moderate rainshowers are
north of 30N between 22W-31W. Relatively quiet weather prevails in
the latitude band from 26N-30N over the eastern half of the
Atlantic Ocean.

The stationary front that runs through the Bahamas and western
Atlantic will weaken today, allowing the wind speeds and sea
heights to decrease in the area. A low pressure system moving
across the SE U.S. will cause SE winds to increase east of Florida
on Fri. A trailing cold front will extend from Bermuda to the NW
Bahamas on Sat, then stall and weaken from 30N70W to central Cuba
on Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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