[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from Hispaniola
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 64W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, curving to 11N18W and 11N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 11N20W to 10N40W, to 08N50W, and to 09N60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from the coasts of
Guyana and Venezuela to 11N between 59W and 61W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 20N
between 20W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are to the east of the line from 10N18W to 05N20W, to
the Equator along 11W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 24N70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the Straits of Florida, to 27N90W. The front becomes warm
from 27N90W, and it curves northwestward to a 1014 mb low
pressure center that is near 28N95W in the NW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. The front becomes stationary from the 1014 mb low
pressure center, to 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers, are to the northwest and north of the line
that runs from NW Cuba, to 24N90W, to 22N92W, to the coast of
Mexico along 92W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Peninsula.

The 1014 mb low pressure center will lift N toward the coast of
Texas through Wednesday night, then ENE across the N central Gulf
waters through Thursday night, moving across the NE Gulf of Mexico
into north Florida by Friday. The developing low pressure center
will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, westward along
09N/10N, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 11N southward between 76W and 82W, in the SW corner of
the area.

An upper level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the Atlantic
Ocean 11N-to-22N between 44W and 53W area of cyclonic wind flow,
into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level cyclonic
circulation center.

24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that
ended at 23/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.91 in St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.72 in San Juan in Puerto Rico,
0.68 in Curacao, 0.49 in Trinidad, 0.46 in Nassau in the Bahamas,
0.12 in Bermuda, and 0.10 in Guadeloupe.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea during the next several days, with the exception of light to
gentle winds in the NW Caribbean Sea. The winds are expected to
become fresh across the south central Caribbean Sea, by Saturday
night. A tropical wave, extending from the Dominican Republic to
eastern Venezuela, will become a trough today, then finally
weaken and dissipate by Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N56W to 24N70W, through the
Straits of Florida, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
23N northward between 50W and 67W. Other rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward.

A surface trough is along 21N52W 12N53W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the area from 11N to 22N between 44W and 53W. An upper
level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the 11N-to-22N area of
cyclonic wind flow, into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level
cyclonic circulation center.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between Africa and 40W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is
near 34N25W.

Expect fresh to strong winds, and seas as high as 10 feet, in the
wake of the current stationary front, to the east of the Bahamas.
The front will weaken tonight and on Wednesday, and allow the wind
speeds and the sea heights to decrease. The surface pressure
gradient, between high pressure in the NE U.S.A. and low pressure
tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico across northern Florida, will
cause the winds and seas to the east of NE Florida to increase on
Thursday and Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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