[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is south of 20N along
67W, moving west at 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery
shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave environment.
Scattered moderate convection is noted inland south of 12N,
affecting northern Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 07N35W to the coast
of South America near 11N65W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N-13N between 21W-34W, and from 09N-21N between 36W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near
23N80W to the western Gulf of Mexico near 27N96W to a 1015 mb
low near 26N96W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 26N
west of 89W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are depicted in
scatterometer data over the northwest Gulf north of the low and
front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of
the basin.

Expect high pressure W of the front to weaken Tue through early
Thu as the front dissipates. A low will develop over Texas Wed
night, then drag a new cold front across the Gulf as it moves to
the SE United States by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is within the basin. See the section above for
details.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10N from
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along this trough.

Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trades will continue through early Wed, then diminish by
Thu night. A tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean will
slowly move across the eastern Caribbean through Wed and
weaken. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will follow the wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 32N57W across the
Bahamas to the Straits of Florida at 23N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 45 nm of the front. A large upper level
trough over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W supports the
cold front. An upper level low is centered over the central
Atlantic near 19N52W. Upper level diffluence is enhancing
convection E of the low center. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, with generally fair weather.

Expect the W Atlantic front to weaken Tue through early Thu
allowing for winds to diminish and seas to subside.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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