[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 05N-21N,
moving west at 10 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows
moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate convection is noted inland mainly south of 10N,
affecting eastern Venezuela.

A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along 88W
and south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. The wave corresponds with
a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. At this time,
scattered moderate convection is present over the EPAC waters,
where the wave meets with the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W
to 11N22W. The ITCZ extends from 11N22W to 08N29W, then from
06N34W to 06N41W, then resumes near 06N47W to 05N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either side of the
ITCZ between 20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf waters from 26N81W to 26N90W,
then becomes stationary from that point to a 1015 mb low near
26N95W. A stationary front extends southward from the low to
20N97W. Scattered moderate convection prevails west of 92W. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are depicted in scatterometer data over
the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of the low and front.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the basin.

The cold front will continue to move quickly across the Gulf E of
96W through tonight and become stationary over the SE Gulf on
Mon. The low will slowly move northeastward through Mon night,
then east northeastward across the N central waters through Thu
night and the NE Gulf by Fri, dragging a new cold front across the
SW Gulf. The tight gradient will gradually slackens allowing for
the fresh to strong winds to slightly diminish Mon through early
Tue. These winds are expected to increase again late Tue or Wed as
another low pressure forms over the NW Gulf and tracks
northeastward toward northern Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See the section above for
details.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10N from
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along this trough. Farther east, Total
Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over
eastern Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean where another
tropical wave prevails. With these, scattered moderate convection
is south of 10N mainly affecting Venezuela.

Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse late tonight in
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. By early Tue
afternoon, these winds diminish to fresh speeds. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades will continue through early Wed, then
diminish to the gentle intensity through Thu night. The tropical
wave over the far eastern Caribbean will slowly move across the
eastern Caribbean through Wed as it weakens. East to southeast
gentle to moderate winds will follow the wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N64W to the eastern coast
of South Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm
of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level
trough is over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting
the cold front. An upper level low is centered over the central
Atlantic near 28N54W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center
is producing scattered moderate convection from 20N-30N between
50W-54W. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin
with fair weather.

The front will become stationary through the middle of next week.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the
front over the west Atlantic through Mon night as strong high
pressure slides eastward off the U.S. east coast. The high
pressure and front will weaken by mid-week, allowing for winds to
diminish and seas to subside. The gradient is forecast to tighten
beginning on Thu east of NE Florida between high pressure to the
N across the eastern seaboard and low pressure that tracks
northeastward from the Gulf of the Mexico to across northern
Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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