[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 49/50W from 02N-14N, moving
west around 10 kt. This wave is depicted at 700 mb in model
guidance, and moderate to high moisture is noted in the wave's
environment. Scattered showers are from 09N-15N between 45W-52W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 08N-19N,
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 12N between 77W-84W, where the wave meets the monsoon
trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 14N17W
to 07N22W to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 03N39W to
03N46W. Scattered showers are noted within 210 nm north and 180 nm
south of the boundaries between the coast of Africa and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front over the southern U.S. ends just east of
Galveston Bay Texas near 29N95W. A surface trough extends from
29N95W to 26N97W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 25N96W
to 19N93W. At upper-levels, diffluence is occurring over portions
of the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted over
the western Gulf from Veracruz to the Louisiana/Texas border
between 93W-97W.

A frontal trough will persist over the SW Gulf through late Mon.
The next cold front will reach the northern Gulf waters this
evening, stretching from South Florida to near 25N97W by Sun
evening. Then, the front will lift N as a weak low pressure
develops along the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf by Mon
evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the showers related to the tropical wave currently
along 79W and the monsoon trough along 10N between 74W-84W, no
significant areas of convection are observed elsewhere across the
basin. However, satellite imagery indicates isolated showers and
thunderstorms over southern Belize and southeast of the Yucatan
Channel between the Isle of Youth and Belize. Weak upper-level
diffluence is noted over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also noted over NW Venezuela and
northern Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, south
of Hispaniola, and near the coast of Colombia today. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the region
through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 27N60W to 26N69W to
27N74W. A surface trough extends from 31N46W to 24N51W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails north of 26N between 44W-55W. To the
southeast, another surface trough is from 15N38W to 08N39W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N-15N between 34W-
39W. Elsewhere, the rest of the basin is free of any significant
convection, with the exception of an area of scattered showers
from 18N-22N between 33W-40W.

The aforementioned stationary front northeast of the Bahamas will
dissipate today west of 65W. A stronger cold front will move off
NE Florida this evening, and will reach from 31N66W to South Florida
by Sun evening, and from 26N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida
Keys by Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are
expected behind the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen/ERA
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