[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-14N, moving west
at 10 kt. This wave is depicted at 700 mb in model guidance and
moderate to high moisture is noted in the wave's environment.
Scattered showers are from 09N-15N between 45W-52W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 08N-19N,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 12N
between 77W-80W, where the wave meets the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 10N14W to
06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 02N46W. Scattered
showers are noted along the boundaries between 18W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tail end of a weakening stationary front extends across west-
central Florida. To the west, a dissipating stationary front
reaches the northwest Gulf waters along 96W and north of 26N. A
surface trough extends from 24N96W to 19N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the western Gulf of Mexico west of 93W.

The weakening stationary front across the northwest Gulf will
dissipate overnight. A frontal trough will persist west of 95W-96W
through early Sun. A cold front will enter the Gulf waters on
Saturday, extending from central Florida to southern Texas by
Sunday, then stalling from S Florida to the Texas/Mexico border
by Sunday night and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of upper-level diffluence near the north coast of
Venezuela has been responsible for enhanced convection over the
ABC Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, southeast Caribbean, southern
Windward Islands and northern Venezuela during the past 24-36
hours. Currently, scattered moderate convection is noted over the
NE coast of Venezuela and adjacent islands south of 12N between
64W-69W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring inland
over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia.

Aside from the showers related to the tropical wave currently
along 79W and the monsoon trough along 11N between 76W-84W, no
significant convection is observed elsewhere across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the region
through early next week. Occasionally strong winds are expected
near the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and south of E
Cuba today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N48W to 26N65W to 27N74W, then
becomes weak to 28N83W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along the front mainly north of 28N. A surface trough is from
30N46W to 26N48W. Scattered showers are along the trough. To the
southeast, another surface trough is from 15N38W to 11N39W with
scattered moderate convection.

Fresh NE winds and building seas are expected north of the
front over the western Atlantic tonight before diminishing
towards the morning as the front continues to weaken. A stronger
cold front will move off northern Florida by Saturday night, with
fresh to strong NE winds and building seas expected behind the
front through early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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