[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Central American Gyre has slipped into the Eastern Pacific
south of Guatemala. Further development will be in that basin.
Scattered moderate to strong convection remains, however, over S
Mexico between 92W-97W. Local flooding still remains a threat
there.

A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N91W to the NW
Gulf of Mexico near 28N94W to S Mexico near 18N94W.  The forecast
consists of NW to N gale-force winds W of front and S of 25N. Expect
sea heights to range from 8 feet to 14 feet. Expect gale-force
winds to continue until 19/0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 15N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is
from 04N to 16N between Africa and 30W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W from 21N southward. It
is moving through the area of the islands of the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from
08N to 21N between 50W and 63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 20N and SE Cuba
southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in the
area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N24W. The ITCZ is along 08N28W 04N36W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area from 10N southward
from 40W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that runs from 05N to 10N between 45W
and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in the western part of the area, passing
through SE Louisiana, to the southern Bay of Campeche. Gale-
force winds are associated with the front. Please reference the
SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is S of 26N between 93W-98W.


Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 27N
southward from 88W eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is part of
the larger-scale area of cyclonic wind flow, that also covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 27N southward from 70W westward, across the
Bahamas, and in the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward.

The current N gale-force winds, that are to the west of the
stationary front, will persist through Thursday evening. It is
possible that the front may be reinforced, and pushed E late
during the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. See above.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
southward from 70W westward.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the next
several days, except locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras,
the approach to the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and in the
Lee of eastern Cuba, through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N63W
producing fair weather.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N
southward from 70W westward, across the Bahamas, and in the
Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 24N southward between 60W and 70W, and from
27N southward from 70W westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 50W eastward. A surface trough is along
24N37W 20N36W 16N36W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the
area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Gentle to moderate return flow N of 27N, and moderate to fresh
trade winds S of 27N, will prevail through Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure NE of the area. A backdoor cold front will
drop S of 31N on Thursday, with freshening winds and building seas
through Friday, before decreasing on Saturday. It is possible
that another cold front may enter the NW part of the area on
Saturday night, once again with increasing winds and building seas
behind the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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