[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170438
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1002 mb low pressure center is in Guatemala near 16N91W. This
low pressure center is part of a broad area of low pressure, a
Central American Gyre. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America and Mexico. This
weather system is expected to move westward with time. The
probability of tropical cyclone development for the Atlantic Basin
is low. The potential for inland heavy rainfall, flash flooding
and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain is high. Please,
refer to your local meteorological service for specific
information about this potentially dangerous weather pattern.

A stationary front passes through south central Louisiana to a
1016 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W. The stationary
front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 23N95W,
to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W, and it curves westward and
northwestward to 20N99W, inland in Mexico, to 25N101W. The
forecast consists of NW-to-N GALE-force winds from 25N southward
from the front westward. Expect sea heights to range from 8 feet
to 14 feet. Expect the GALE-force winds to continue for nearly
the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/26W from 15N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is
from 04N to 16N between Africa and 30W.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 21N southward. It is moving
through the area of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 08N to 21N between 50W
and 63W. It is possible that some of this precipitation also may
be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 20N and SE
Cuba southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in
the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W
westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N24W. The ITCZ is along 08N28W 04N36W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area from 10N southward
from 40W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that runs from 05N to 10N between 45W
and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in the western part of the area, passing
through southern Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Gale-force winds are associated with the front. Please
reference the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N
southward from 91W westward. An upper level inverted trough is on
top of the area of the stationary front.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 27N
southward from 88W eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is part of
the larger-scale area of cyclonic wind flow, that also covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 27N southward from 70W westward, across the
Bahamas, and in the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward.

The current N gale-force winds, that are to the west of the
stationary front, will persist through Thursday, with fresh to
strong winds N of there and behind the front. The wind speeds
will diminish to less than gale force on Thursday night and
Friday, as the front weakens. It is possible that the front may
be reinforced, and pushed E late during the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about heavy rainfall that is associated with the Central American
Gyre, and the 1001 mb low pressure center that is in Mexico, just
outside the border with Guatemala, near 16N91W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
southward from 70W westward.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the next
several days, except locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras,
the approach to the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and in the
Lee of eastern Cuba, through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N
southward from 70W westward, across the Bahamas, and in the
Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 24N southward between 60W and 70W, and from
27N southward from 70W westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 50W eastward. A surface trough is along
24N37W 20N36W 16N36W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the
area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Gentle to moderate return flow N of 27N, and moderate to fresh
trade winds S of 27N, will prevail through Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure NE of the area. A backdoor cold front will
drop S of 31N on Thursday, with freshening winds and building seas
through Friday, before decreasing on Saturday. It is possible
that another cold front may enter the NW part of the area on
Saturday night, once again with increasing winds and building seas
behind the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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