[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 131433
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

Despite Leslie moving over 20C ocean and being embedded within
strong shear, satellite data indicate that Leslie has maintained
its deep warm core and is running ahead of a cold front. Although
convection has weakened considerably, Dvorak estimates indicate
that the winds are still 65 kt.  All indications are that Leslie
will acquire extratropical characteristics in the next several
hours, and by the time it reaches the Iberian peninsula later today,
the system will be a powerful post-tropical cyclone. After landfall,
rapid weakening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to degenerate
into a broad low pressure area over Spain in a day or so.

Leslie is racing toward the northeast or 055 degrees at about 29 kt
while embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies.  A continued
northeastward motion with gradual decrease in forward speed is
anticipated in the next 12 to 24 hours. This is consistent with
most of the track guidance, which unanimously brings the core of the
post-tropical cyclone over the Iberian peninsula tonight.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
western Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 38.0N  12.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 40.0N   8.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  14/1200Z 41.5N   4.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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