[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 122033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

The center of Nadine is now completely exposed to the west of a
waning area of deep convection due to 35-40 kt of southwesterly
shear. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers
from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt.
This could be a little generous, but hopefully ASCAT will sample
the system later this evening to provide a better idea of how much
the winds have weakened. The NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
from the previous one, and now shows Nadine becoming a depression by
12 hours and a remnant low by 24 hours, but both could happen
sooner.

The now shallow cyclone has turned west-northwestward, with an
initial motion estimate of 285/13. Nadine and its remnants should
move quickly westward in the low-level trade wind flow until
dissipation. The new NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.4N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 16.5N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 16.7N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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